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Embracing Failure for Success

HealthPad

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Medical Technology

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personalised medicine

telemedicine

While patient safety demands zero tolerance for failure, many areas of healthcare enterprises benefit from setbacks that drive learning and improvement
Innovation thrives on calculated risk, yet a pervasive fear of mistakes stifles creativity and progress
The dismissal of a biotech executive after public missteps underscores leadership’s responsibility to provide adequate preparation and support for high stakes roles
Cultures that prioritise resilience and psychological safety turn setbacks into opportunities through transparency, accountability, and continuous learning
Rigid, punitive environments hinder growth, whereas organisations like SpaceX, 3M, and progressive healthcare enterprises demonstrate that embracing errors cultivates innovation and sustained success

Embracing Failure for Success

In the high-stakes world of healthcare - where innovation, patient care, and public trust intersect - certain failures are simply unacceptable. When patient safety, treatment efficacy, or regulatory compliance are compromised, the consequences can be severe, demanding unwavering vigilance, rigorous standards, and an uncompromising commitment to excellence. Yet not all mistakes bear the same weight. Beyond critical, life-altering errors, most healthcare entities, including biotech firms and MedTech organisations, encounter challenges tied to operational inefficiencies, market perception, and the pursuit of innovation. These setbacks, while disruptive, are often catalysts - forcing adaptation, driving breakthroughs, and ultimately strengthening the industry’s ability to serve those who rely on it.

Consider this imagined scenario: A senior executive at a biotech firm - an accomplished biomedical engineer with a deep understanding of the industry - strategically applies their expertise to enhance the company’s standing among providers and key opinion leaders. Through public advocacy, they emerge as a visible champion of the enterprise’s solutions, reinforcing its value proposition for both clinicians and patients. However, a few well-intentioned but unvetted disclosures in high-profile forums catch the attention of senior leadership. The response is swift and decisive: they are dismissed. This action side-lines a capable leader and raises questions about accountability. Were their missteps a matter of personal oversight, or did they expose systemic failures in leadership, communication, and risk management?

Public representation at this level is no small task, and most organisations - especially in healthcare, where messaging can influence investor confidence, regulatory relationships, and clinical adoption - invest in structured coaching to align communications with corporate priorities. Quarterly earnings calls, and investor briefings reflect this meticulous approach. Yet, in this case, the burden of failure seemed to rest disproportionately on the individual, rather than on the organisation’s responsibility to equip them for success.

This scenario underscores a tension in corporate culture: the balance between accountability and growth. While reputational missteps and innovation risks can be costly, they also serve as inflection points. Albert Einstein once observed, “A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.” Winston Churchill echoed this sentiment, noting, “Success is not final; failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” These insights remind us that learning flourishes when individuals and organisations have the space to err - so long as those errors do not compromise ethical or safety imperatives.

Benjamin Franklin framed failure as an essential component of discovery, remarking, “I haven’t failed, I’ve had 10,000 ideas that didn’t work.” Joan Littlewood offered a similarly evocative metaphor: “If we don’t get lost, we’ll never find a new route.” These perspectives challenge enterprises - particularly in biotech, MedTech and healthcare - to rethink failure as an engine of progress rather than an anomaly to eliminate. Embracing this mindset requires fostering a culture of calculated risk-taking, adaptability, and continuous learning - while upholding an unwavering commitment to patient safety, regulatory integrity, and public trust.

In this Commentary

This Commentary explores the paradox of failure as a driver of success in healthcare, asserting that cultivating a culture of innovation and growth across the industry depends on recognising mistakes as essential stepping stones to progress. Additionally, it questions whether organisations, in their drive for success, unintentionally hinder potential by punishing failure rather than harnessing it as a learning tool. Ultimately, it advocates for a reassessment of how healthcare enterprises support their employees and nurture resilience in the face of challenges.

Success Hinges on Failure

Innovation thrives in environments that encourage experimentation and cultivate psychological safety - the confidence to take risks, challenge conventions, and voice dissent without fear of retribution. While precision is paramount in critical areas of healthcare - such as diagnostics, therapies, and patient safety - this need for unwavering accuracy should not extend to non-critical domains. Fields like marketing, innovation, manufacturing processes, and communications provide opportunities where calculated risks and setbacks, when leveraged effectively, serve as catalysts for advancement.

Yet, many healthcare enterprises remain locked in rigid corporate cultures, where risk aversion - even in areas that thrive on experimentation - inhibits bold decision-making and hinders growth. This reluctance is often most pronounced among long-tenured executives who have spent years navigating corporate inertia. For them, setbacks are not just missteps but destabilising forces - ones that challenge ingrained habits, expose vulnerabilities, and threaten the predictability of well-established policies. Instead of viewing unconventional ideas or strategic miscalculations as opportunities for evolution, many healthcare leaders instinctively push back.

This dynamic is exacerbated by insular leadership cultures that elevate authority over adaptability and prize infallibility over curiosity, creating an environment where rhetorical endorsements of innovation serve as a veneer for an underlying resistance to accountability. Consequently, decision-makers retreat into echo chambers, fortifying their choices against scrutiny and insulating themselves from diverse perspectives. In such a setting, the instinct to preserve the status quo stifles constructive dissent, while creativity languishes beneath the burdens of deference and risk aversion.

This paradox is evident across the industry: while many healthcare enterprises aspire to innovate, they often fail to cultivate the cultural conditions necessary for innovation to take root. Consider the case of the biotech executive whose public missteps exposed systemic shortcomings. Their role as a spokesperson required not just personal preparedness but also institutional support - rigorous content review, strategic coaching, and alignment with the organisation’s broader vision. The absence of these safeguards point to a larger failure: a lack of foresight and an inability to promote a culture of accountability and resilience.

Such leadership deficits may be more pervasive than commonly acknowledged. A 2024 Time magazine article, The Plague of Mediocre Leadership, reported that ~82% of corporate executives were deemed ineffective based on five key competencies: (i) setting direction, (ii) harnessing energy, (iii) exerting pressure, (iv) building connectivity, and (v) directing traffic. Even if only partially accurate, this figure suggests a troubling leadership deficit. The research further highlighted that many executives tend to act before fully thinking through consequences and form connections based on personal affinity rather than strategic alignment. Such tendencies encourage ineffective execution, and poor decision-making. Compounding the problem, the Time article cites research from the American Psychological Association indicating that most company executives lack the ability to identify the characteristics that define effective leadership, let alone assess them accurately.

Instead of facilitating resilience and innovation, many executives react to the setbacks of innovators and disrupters with punitive measures, like in the case of our biotech example, which reinforces a culture of complacency and mediocrity at the top. This dynamic reflects a broader, more troubling trend: organisations that prioritise short-term metrics over long-term vision risk alienating the very individuals capable of driving sustainable success. By failing to build a culture where errors are recognised as integral to learning and growth, these companies supress innovation, erode adaptability, and ultimately compromise their ability to thrive in an ever-evolving landscape.

The Untapped Power of Failure

In many corporate cultures, errors are seen as liabilities - undermining leadership credibility, alarming shareholders, and threatening profitability. To maintain control and avoid scrutiny, organisations often downplay missteps, fostering a climate of blame and risk aversion. Yet, suppressing setbacks not only impedes innovation but also discourages the bold thinking essential for long-term resilience and transformation.

History demonstrates that setbacks, when embraced as a learning tool, can be a catalyst for progress. Post-it Notes originated from an unexpected adhesive experiment at 3M, ultimately becoming one of its most successful products. SpaceX, by contrast, has built its success on a "fail fast, learn faster" philosophy, using each rocket mishap as an opportunity for refinement. Meanwhile, Boeing’s more risk-averse culture has contributed to safety crises, including the 737 MAX crashes and major fuselage defects, revealing significant shortcomings in quality control and oversight.

The consequences of avoiding mistakes are stark across industries. Aviation, with its rigorous, no-blame approach to errors, maintains a low fatality rate despite managing >151,000 flights daily. In contrast, US healthcare’s reluctance to acknowledge mistakes contributes to ~200,000 preventable deaths annually - the equivalent of three fatal airline crashes per day.

Some of healthcare’s greatest breakthroughs have emerged from initial missteps. . Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci robotic system encountered scepticism and technical challenges before transforming minimally invasive surgery. Early pacemakers were cumbersome and inconsistent, but persistent innovation transformed them into the compact, lifesaving devices we rely on today. The widely publicised 2010 issues with DePuy’s metal-on-metal hip implants prompted significant advancements in biocompatible materials, greatly improving implant safety and durability. Likewise, insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) evolved through iterative refinement and now integrate AI to optimise diabetes management.

The COVID-19 pandemic saw an unprecedented acceleration of diagnostic test development. Many early tests had issues with sensitivity and specificity, leading to false negatives and positives. Companies and researchers quickly learned from these setbacks, refining testing methodologies to improve accuracy. The rapid adaptation of PCR and antigen testing techniques ultimately provided reliable and scalable solutions to detect and manage the virus effectively, demonstrating the power of learning from shortcomings in real time.

The lesson is clear: in an era of rapid innovation, industries that harness drawbacks as a strategic learning tool - rather than a threat - will lead the future.

Episode #3 of HealthPadTalks is now available

Click here to listen to Regenerative Medicine: The Next Medical Revolution

Resilient Leadership in Healthcare Enterprises

Resilient leadership is the bedrock of any healthcare enterprise that not only withstands disruption but harnesses it as a catalyst for growth and transformation. Effective leaders do not retreat in the face of challenges, whether from external pressures or internal disrupters who challenge the status quo. Instead, they support a culture where constructive dissent is valued, setbacks drive learning, and adaptability is embedded at every level of the organisation. By engaging with disruption rather than resisting it, resilient leaders fuel innovation, enhance organisational value, improve patient outcomes, and reinforce stakeholder confidence.

Building this culture requires leaders to cultivate an environment of open challenge and debate. Encouraging diverse perspectives sharpens decision-making, uncovers blind spots, and leads to more effective, forward-thinking solutions. When leaders actively seek out and engage with diverse perspectives, they demonstrate that constructive dissent - when aligned with shared goals - is a catalyst for progress, not a threat. However, there is a distinction between endorsing open dialogue in theory and embedding it into the organisation’s DNA. Too often, leadership rhetoric champions transparency, yet real evaluation remains insulated within executive circles. In such cases, accountability becomes a symbolic exercise rather than a transformative force.

Transparency is a fundamental pillar of resilient leadership. Leaders who acknowledge their own missteps accelerate trust and normalise the idea that failure, when leveraged effectively, is a catalyst for progress. Yet, in a sector often structured around rigid hierarchies, siloes, and risk aversion, relinquishing control, and embracing uncertainty can be difficult. Feedback mechanisms must be more than procedural - they should be authentic and actionable. In high-functioning healthcare enterprises, professionals at all levels feel empowered to challenge decisions, contribute ideas, and drive solutions without fear of reprisal. In contrast, organisations where feedback remains a token gesture risk stagnation. Leaders must not only listen but act - demonstrating that resilience is built through collective learning, not individual infallibility.

Investing in people strengthens organisational resilience. Access to mentorship, continuous training, and professional development equips teams to navigate uncertainty with confidence. However, in a fast-paced, resource-constrained industry, workforce development is often deprioritised in favour of immediate operational demands, hindering long-term transformation. Truly resilient leaders embed learning and adaptability into the enterprise, ensuring that agility becomes a strategic advantage rather than a reactive necessity.

Ultimately, resilient leadership in healthcare is not about having all the answers - it is about supporting an ecosystem where collaboration, innovation, and adaptability thrive. When these principles are integrated, healthcare enterprises do not just endure disruption; they redefine what is possible in the face of it.

Psychological Safety

Psychological safety is fundamental to championing innovation, operational excellence, and high-performing teams. It enables creativity, encourages constructive challenges, and cultivates a shared commitment to learning. A landmark 2016 Google study identified psychological safety as the single most important factor in team success, reinforcing its role in organisational resilience.

While healthcare and other high-stakes industries require precision and compliance, many operational and strategic areas - such as marketing, process improvement, and innovation - benefit from experimentation and calculated risk-taking. In these domains, psychological safety enables iterative learning and continuous improvement.

Encouraging collaborative problem-solving strengthens this culture. When setbacks are framed as shared learning experiences rather than individual defeats, teams develop resilience and a growth mindset. Recognising effort alongside outcomes further reinforces this principle, reducing the fear of mistakes and empowering people to explore transformative possibilities.

Adopting iterative processes normalises setbacks as necessary steps toward innovation. Rather than being discouraged by initial errors, teams refine, adapt, and improve with confidence. This shift reduces stigma, enhances agility, and builds a foundation for sustained progress.

By adopting these principles, organisations create an environment where psychological safety fuels creativity, operational excellence, and long-term success - allowing teams to push boundaries without fear while maintaining a commitment to quality and compliance in critical areas.

Institutionalising Failure in Healthcare

Redefining failure as a catalyst for progress requires a shift in mindset - one that views setbacks not as deficiencies but as essential learning opportunities. In healthcare, where precision and accountability are paramount, leaders must cultivate an environment where calculated experimentation is encouraged, and missteps are leveraged as pathways to innovation rather than professional liabilities.

To achieve this, healthcare enterprises should implement structured frameworks that support intelligent risk-taking. Robust clinical governance, interdisciplinary collaboration, and data-driven feedback loops can ensure that new ideas are tested in controlled, adaptive ways. Targeted training, mentorship, and iterative review processes further equip professionals to navigate uncertainty while maintaining patient safety and operational integrity.

Equally important is normalising setbacks through open, constructive discourse. Case studies of medical advancements born from unexpected outcomes can illustrate how iteration and resilience drive progress. Embedding these principles into institutional narratives fosters a culture where learning from failure is not only accepted but actively valued.

Moreover, aligning performance metrics to reward constructive experimentation - rather than only celebrating outcomes - reinforces a mindset of continuous improvement. By recognising well-reasoned innovation efforts, healthcare organisations can ensure that ingenuity and adaptability remain central to their mission, ultimately enhancing patient care and long-term sustainability in an evolving industry.

Takeaways

The most transformative healthcare enterprises are not those that avoid errors but those that harness them to drive progress. While precision, accountability, and patient safety remain non-negotiable, innovation emerges from environments that balance risk with resilience, curiosity with compliance, and bold thinking with structured oversight.

A culture that views missteps as a catalyst for learning - rather than a mark of incompetence - empowers healthcare professionals to challenge assumptions, refine strategies, and push boundaries in ways that ultimately enhance care delivery, operational efficiency, and medical advancement. This shift demands more than rhetorical support for innovation; it requires tangible leadership commitments to psychological safety, strategic risk-taking, and iterative learning.

Healthcare leaders must champion transparency, not only by acknowledging flaws but by dissecting them openly to extract meaningful insights. They must cultivate an environment where professionals - at all levels - feel empowered to voice concerns, propose new ideas, and navigate setbacks without fear of undue reprisal. When mistakes are institutionalised as stepping stones rather than stumbling blocks, the entire system grows stronger.

History has shown that industries that embrace learning from blunders - whether in aerospace, technology, or healthcare - are the ones that achieve the most significant breakthroughs. As healthcare faces new challenges in an era of rapid technological evolution, shifting regulatory landscapes, and rising patient expectations, its future depends on leaders who have the foresight to see setbacks not as obstacles, but as essential drivers of sustainable success.

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Healthcare 2040

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Since 2000 healthcare has been transformed by genomics, AI, the internet, robotics, and data-driven solutions
Traditional providers, anchored in outdated technologies, struggle to keep pace with the evolving healthcare landscape
Over the next two decades anticipate another seismic shift, bringing further disruptions to medical technology and healthcare delivery
In the face of this imminent transformation, risk-averse leaders may cling to outdated portfolios, showing little interest in adapting to a 2040 healthcare ecosystem
Providers must decide; embrace change now and thrive in a transformed healthcare landscape, or stick to the status quo and risk losing value and competitiveness

Healthcare 2040

Abstract

By 2040, the landscape of healthcare will have undergone a seismic shift, discarding antiquated models in favour of cutting-edge AI-genomic-data-driven approaches that will radically change both medical technology and healthcare delivery. This transformation signifies a departure from the conventional one-size-fits-all system, ushering in an era of targeted therapies grounded in molecular-level insights that challenge entrenched healthcare paradigms. The evolving healthcare narrative emphasises prevention, wellbeing, personalised care, and heightened accessibility. This departure from the norm is not a trend but a significant reconfiguration, where the fusion of biomedical science, technology, and expansive datasets merge to facilitate early detection and proactive interventions. This not only deepens our comprehension of diseases but also elevates the efficacy of therapies. At the core of this transformation is the empowerment of individuals within a framework that champions choice and fosters virtual communities. Genetic advancements, far from just addressing hereditary conditions, play an important role in enhancing diagnostic accuracy, optimising patient outcomes, and fundamentally shifting the focus from reactive diagnosis and treatment to a proactive commitment to prevention and holistic wellbeing. The indispensable roles played by genomics and AI-driven care in reshaping healthcare are not isolated occurrences; they will catalyse the emergence of new data-intensive R&D enterprises, which are poised to redefine the healthcare landscape against a backdrop of multifaceted influencing factors. Successfully navigating this transformative period necessitates a distinct set of capabilities and strategic alignment with an envisioned 2040 healthcare environment.

Providers find themselves at a crossroads, confronted with a choice: adapt and thrive or risk losing value and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving landscape. Recognising potential resistance to change and the scarcity of pertinent capabilities, leaders of traditional enterprises must acknowledge that immediate strategic action is not just beneficial but a prerequisite for success in the redefined healthcare ecosystem of 2040. The urgency of this call to action cannot be overstated, as the window of opportunity for adaptation narrows with each passing moment.

In this Commentary

This Commentary aims to help healthcare professionals to strategically reposition their organizations for success in the next two decades. Leaders must evaluate their strengths and weaknesses in the context of an envisioned future and implement strategies to align their organisations with the demands of a rapidly changing health ecosystem. Failure to do so will dent enterprises’ competitiveness and threaten their survival. Leaders should anticipate and address resistance to change among executives with a preference for the status quo. The Commentary has two sections: Part 1, Looking Back 20 Years, describes the scale and pace of change since 2000 and emphasises how genomics, the internet, AI, digitalization, data-driven solutions, robotics, telehealth, outpatient services, personalised care, ubiquitous communications, and strategic responses to demographic shifts have transformed medical technology and healthcare delivery. Part 2, Looking Forward 20 Years, seeks to stimulate discussions about the future of healthcare. While we highlight a range of factors positioned to impact medical technology and healthcare deliver in the future, we emphasise the significance of genomics, varied and vast datasets, and AI. We suggest the emergence of specialised agile, AI-driven research boutiques with capabilities to leverage untapped genomic, personal, and medical data. The proliferation of such entities will oblige traditional healthcare enterprises to reduce their R&D activities and concentrate on manufacturing. Over the next 20 years, anticipate an accelerated shift towards patient-centric, cell-based prevention and wellbeing care modalities, large hospitals replaced with smaller hubs of medical excellence, the rapid growth of outpatient centres, and the acceleration of home care and care-enabled virtual communities. The future dynamic healthcare ecosystem necessitates stakeholders to change immediately if they are to survive and prosper. Takeaways posit a choice for healthcare leaders: either stick to the status quo and risk losing value and competitiveness or embrace change and stay relevant.

Part 1

Looking Back 20 Years

Reflecting on the past two decades shows the rapid evolution and interplay of factors shaping medical technology and healthcare delivery. Appreciating the speed and scale of change helps to envision the future. Factors such as genomics, the Internet, AI, robotics, digitalisation, data-driven health solutions, telehealth, outpatient services, home care, personalised wellbeing, ubiquitous personal telephony, and strategic responses to demographic shifts have all influenced medical technology and healthcare delivery and will continue to do so in the future. Here we describe a few of these factors.

The completion of the Human Genome Project in 2003 was a pivotal moment in the direction of medical advancement, laying the foundations for the emergence of genomics. Genomics, encapsulating the mapping, sequencing, and analysis of DNA, is a pivotal tool for unravelling molecular information, variations, and their implications in both traits and diseases. This achievement not only transformed biomedical research but also changed healthcare, shifting it from a generic one-size-fits-all approach to finely tuned care tailored to the unique genetic makeup of individuals.

Over the past two decades, the decoding of the human genetic blueprint has provided unprecedented insights into diseases at the molecular level, triggering a paradigm shift in medicine. This ushered in an era of personalised and precision approaches to diagnoses, treatments, and prevention. From the advent of targeted therapies to the implementation of genetic screening, genomic research has had a transformative influence and is positioned to continue its impact on healthcare.

Indeed, genomic testing has become a standard practice, and US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved genomic care modalities have advanced medicine. For example, pharmacogenonics tailors drug treatments to individual patients by utilising genetic information, with FDA-approved tests for specific biomarkers that predict medication responses. Hereditary assessments evaluate an individual's cancer risk based on genetic makeup, such as identifying BRCA gene mutations linked to elevated risks of breast and ovarian cancers. Gene expression profiling analyses a patient's tumour genetics to guide targeted cancer therapies, with FDA-approved companion diagnostic tests for specific cancer treatments. Carrier testing identifies genetic mutations that could be passed on to children, which contribute to family planning and prenatal care. Pharmacodiagnostic tests help pinpoint patients that would benefit from specific drug treatments, predicting responses, especially in cancer therapies.

In 2012, the UK government inaugurated Genomics England, an initiative designed to spearhead the 100,000 Genomes Project, which aimed to sequence the genomes of 100,000 patients with infectious diseases and specific cancers. The project’s goals included the enhancement of our understanding of various genetic factors in diseases, the facilitation of targeted treatments and establishing a framework for the integration of genomics into everyday clinical practice. The successful completion of the project in 2018, provided a basis for genomic medicine and a deeper understanding of the genetic framework influencing health and disease.

In addition to genomic data, since 2000, there has been a significant increase in health-related data, driven by the proliferation of electronic health records (EHRs), developments in information management technologies, initiatives to improve healthcare efficiency, and enhanced communications among stakeholders. The growth in data has, in turn, created opportunities for the utilisation of AI and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Over the last two decades, AI has changed medical technology and healthcare delivery by enhancing diagnostics, personalising treatment plans, streamlining administrative tasks, and facilitating research through efficient data analysis, which has improved patient outcomes, and advanced the field. As of January 2023, the FDA has approved >520 AI and ML algorithms for medical use, which are primarily related to the analysis of medical images and videos. Indeed, the rise of algorithms has transformed healthcare, with many of them focusing on predictions using EHRs that do not require FDA approval.

In addition to EHRs there has been the evolution of wearable technologies like the Apple Watch and Fitbit, which have transformed personal health. Initially focusing on fitness tracking, these devices have expanded to monitor an array of health metrics. Over the years, they have amassed vast amounts of personalised data, ranging from activity levels to heart rate patterns. These data reservoirs are a goldmine for healthcare and wellbeing strategies, enabling individuals, healthcare professionals and providers to gain unprecedented insights into health trends, customised care routines, and the early detection of health issues. This combination of technology and health data has created opportunities for proactive healthcare management and personalised wellbeing interventions.

Targeted medicine not only benefitted from AI but also from personalised telephony, which experienced a significant boost in the early 2000s by the widespread internet access in households across the globe. The period was marked by the introduction of the iPad in 2001, closely followed by the launch of the iPhone. These innovations triggered widespread smartphone use and accessible internet connectivity, laying the foundations for the emergence of telehealth and telemedicine. In the early 2000s, global cell phone subscriptions numbered ~740m. Today, the figure is >8bn, surpassing the world's population. This increase was driven by the proliferation of broadband, the evolution of mobile technologies and the rise of social media, all contributing to the ubiquitous presence of the internet. By the 2010s, the internet had integrated into the daily lives of a substantial portion of the global population. Initially, in 2000, ~7% of the world’s population had access online. Contrastingly, today, >50% enjoy internet connectivity. In a similar vein, broadband access in American homes has surged from ~50% in 2000 to >90% in the present day. Personal telephony has evolved into an omnipresent force, and has become an integral part of billions of lives, actively enhancing health and wellbeing on a global scale. After 2010, patient-centric wellbeing evolved and later was helped by Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, with telehealth and telemedicine offering remote consultations and treatments, empowering patients, and emphasising shared decision-making between healthcare providers and patients.

On a more prosaic level, consider how robotics has changed surgery over the past two decades by offering enhanced precision, reduced invasiveness, and improved recovery times. The use of robotic systems, like the da Vinci Surgical System, which gained FDA-approval in 2000, has allowed surgeons to perform complex procedures with greater accuracy. Between 2012 and 2022, the percentage of surgical procedures using robotic systems rose from 1.8% to 17%. Robotic surgery is becoming increasingly popular, with an annual growth rate of ~15%. In 2020, its global volume was 1.24m, with the US accounting for >70% of all robotic surgeries.

The shifting demographics over the past few decades, marked by decreasing birth rates, prolonged life expectancy, and immigration, has transformed prosperous industrial economies, resulting in a substantial rise in the proportion of the elderly population. For instance, in the US in 2000, there were ~35m citizens ≥65; today, this figure has risen to ~56m, ~17% of the population. Concurrently, there has been an increase of chronic lifetime illnesses such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disorders. In 2000, ~125m Americans suffered from at least one chronic condition. Today, this figure has increased to ~133m - ~50% of the population. Simultaneously, there is a shrinking pool of health professionals. Research suggests that by 2030, there will be ~5m fewer physicians than society will require. This, together with ageing populations, the growing burden of chronic diseases and rising costs of healthcare globally are challenging governments, payers, regulators, and providers to innovate and transform medical technology and healthcare delivery.

Part 2

Looking Forward 20 Years

This section aims to encourage healthcare professionals to envision the future. Over the next two decades, medical technology and healthcare delivery are likely to be affected by numerous interconnected factors, which include: (i) continued progress in AI and ML, internet of things (IoT), robotics, nanotechnology, and biotechnology, (ii) advances in genomics, (iii) increasing availability of multi-modal data (genomics, economic, demographic, clinical and phenotypic) coupled with technology innovations, (iv) accelerated adoption of telemedicine and virtual monitoring technologies, (v) changes in healthcare regulations, (vi) an increase of patient-cantered care and greater patient involvement in decision-making, (vii) emerging infectious diseases, antimicrobial resistance, and other global health issues, (viii) Investments in healthcare infrastructure, both physical and digital, (ix) an evolving and shrinking healthcare workforce, including the further integration of AI technologies and changes in roles, (x) economic conditions and healthcare funding, (xi) the ethical use of technology, privacy concerns, and societal attitudes towards healthcare innovations, and (xii) environmental changes and their impact on health and wellbeing. Such factors and their interconnectivity are expected to drive significant healthcare transformation over the next two decades. Healthcare systems throughout the world are tasked with: (i) improving population health, (ii) enhancing patients’ therapeutic journeys and outcomes, (iii) strengthening caregivers’ experience and (iv) reducing the rising cost of care. There appears to be unanimous agreement among healthcare leaders that these goals will not be achieved by business as usual.

In November 2023, BTIG, a leading global financial services firm, organised its Digital Health Forum, bringing together >30 healthcare companies that offer a diverse range of products and services. During the event, executives discussed business models, reimbursement, and commercial strategies, and unanimously agreed that: "The market is primed for the mainstream integration of digital diagnostics and therapeutics." Here we focus on the anticipated accelerated convergence of genomics and AI technologies, and foresee the emergence of agile, AI-driven R&D boutiques as key players in reshaping medical technology and healthcare delivery.

These dynamic research entities thrive on the power of data. Currently, ~79% of the hospital data generated annually goes untapped, and medical information is doubling every 73 days. This emphasises the vast latent potential within these repositories. Traditional enterprises and healthcare professionals, constrained by a dearth of data management capabilities, have struggled to unlock the full potential inherent in these vast stores of information. By contrast, the adept data processing capabilities of these new innovative enterprises position them strategically to harness untapped data sources, extracting valuable insights into disease states and refining treatment modalities. Moreover, they boast advanced technology stacks, seamless connections between semiconductors, software, and systems, and are well-prepared to leverage specialised generative AI applications as they emerge in the market. Armed with cutting-edge technology and extensive datasets, they stand ready to enhance diagnostic precision, streamline treatment approaches, and reduce overall healthcare costs. Private equity firms will be eager to invest in these disruptive AI start-ups, anticipating M&A activities focused on specific therapeutic areas that will make them appealing to public markets.

These innovative entities are set to expedite the introduction of disruptive solutions, improve patients' therapeutic journeys, and optimise outcomes while driving operational efficiencies. Anticipate them to overshadow their traditional counterparts, many of which have outdated legacy offerings and historically have treated R&D as small adjustments to existing portfolios. Given that many conventional healthcare enterprises have: (i) failed to keep pace with technological developments, (ii) a dearth of in-house data-handling capabilities, and (iii) no experience in data-heavy disruptive R&D, it seems reasonable to suggest that they will most likely retreat into their core manufacturing activities, relinquish their R&D roles and lose value.

In the forefront of seismic change, the integration of digitalisation, AI, and cutting-edge decision support tools propels the emerging agile, data-driven R&D enterprises into a pivotal role within the landscape of well-informed, personalised healthcare. Meticulously safeguarding sensitive information, these enterprises not only adhere to the highest standards of privacy but also elevate security measures through state-of-the-art encryption techniques and decentralised storage solutions. As staunch guardians of privacy, they go beyond conventional approaches, crafting data repositories that not only shield confidential information but also facilitate the seamless flow of critical insights crucial for advancing medical technology and elevating care delivery. The seamless synergy between vast genomic, economic, demographic, clinical, and phenotypic data repositories and advanced AI techniques is poised to radically change healthcare R&D, redirecting it away from refining traditional products towards disruptive endeavours. Moreover, these agile research entities are anticipated to encourage widespread industry cooperation, harnessing the power of diverse data sources to innovate health solutions and services that transcend boundaries, thereby playing an important role in shaping a borderless health and wellbeing ecosystem.

In the regulatory arena, a transformation is anticipated by 2040. Regulators are likely to evolve from enforcers to stewards of progress, collaborating with industry stakeholders to promote a consumer-centric healthcare. Advocating transparency, patients' rights, and ethical innovation, regulators will become influential drivers of progress, contributing to a shared and equitable healthcare future. This collaborative effort is expected to contribute to a data-driven healthcare ecosystem that prioritises individual wellbeing, innovation, and accessibility in equal measure.

By 2040, expect healthcare payers to have undergone a transformative change, fuelled by a seismic shift in medical technology and healthcare delivery. New payment models will prioritise individualised therapies and patient outcomes, leveraging real-time health data for customised coverage. AI will streamline administration, reduce costs, and enhance overall healthcare efficiency. Increased patient engagement and collaboration among payers, providers, and patients will drive a holistic, patient-centred approach, ultimately improving the quality and accessibility of healthcare services.

This section has emphasised the transformative forces of genomics and AI shaping a personalised healthcare ecosystem. While traditional medical technology and healthcare delivery may be predicated upon physical devices and a one-size-fits-all approach, the future lies in the fusion of data and smart software to accelerate targeted care, which marks a significant departure from the conventional.

Takeaways

The shift towards genomic-driven healthcare marks a transformation in the medical landscape expected by 2040. Moving away from outdated models, the trend towards personalised care, rooted in molecular insights, necessitates a revaluation from health professionals. This shift, facilitated by the fusion of biomedical science, advanced technologies, and vast amounts of varied data, foresees a future where prevention, individualised wellbeing, and improved accessibility become the new norm. The convergence of genomics and AI not only improves diagnostics and treatments but also points to prevention and overall wellness. This Commentary has highlighted the transformative impact of genomics and AI-driven healthcare at the cellular level, making way for data-intensive R&D enterprises that will shape the future of medical technology and healthcare delivery. The path to 2040 demands a departure from conventional norms of the past, requiring strategic realignment and specific capabilities. Traditional providers find themselves at a juncture: those that adapt to an envisioned care environment of 2040 are more likely to succeed, while those that resist risk becoming obsolete. By acknowledging potential obstacles to change and the scarcity of relevant capabilities, leaders are encouraged to recognise the urgency of strategic action as a prerequisite for success in the redefined healthcare landscape of 2040. The future is imminent, and the time for transformative readiness is now.

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Healthcare disrupters

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MedTech growth strategies have taken advantage of low interest rates and cheap money to debt finance acquisitions of near adjacent companies with existing tried and tested products
This allowed companies to expand their product portfolios, geographic reach, and customer bases
Many MedTechs preferred such a growth strategy to investing in R&D to develop disruptive technologies that maybe outside their immediate field of interest
These technologies include 3D bioprinting, robotics, virtual reality, biometric devices and wearables, digital therapeutics, and telemedicine
All are patient-centric software driven technologies rather than hardware devices that serve the needs of hospitals
All are positioned to influence the shape of healthcare systems over the next decade
Many MedTech R&D investments are devoted to making small improvements to legacy products that prioritize the interests of large healthcare organizations over the needs of patients
Traditional MedTech M&A-driven growth strategies that have benefitted from an era of low interest rates and cheap money may now be challenged in the current period of higher interest rates, stagnate growth and rapidly evolving disruptive healthcare technologies.

Healthcare disrupters

On March 10, 2023, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed after a series of ill-fated investment decisions triggered a run on its assets. It was the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and the second largest in US history. The demise of SVB triggered a subsequent free fall in the shares of the Silvergate Bank, the Signature Bank, and the First Republic Bank. Then, on March 17, Credit Suisse shares crashed. Despite a US$54bn lifeline from theSwiss National Bankon March 19, the bank collapsed and was ‘acquired’ by UBS for ~US$3bn. This banking crisis could create a weakness in corporate balance sheets more generally. Especially in MedTechs that have borrowed heavily in an era of low interest rates and cheap money, and now might be challenged by higher rates, economic stagnation, and rapidly advancing software driven healthcare technologies. These include, 3D bioprinting, robotics, virtual reality (VR), biometric devices and wearables, digital therapeutics, and telemedicine. All are positioned to influence the shape of healthcare over the next decade by: (i) changing the way healthcare is delivered, (ii) improving patient outcomes, (iii) lowering healthcare costs, (iv) increasing access to care, and (v) creating new business models as value shifts from hardware to software. Should the banking collapse be a warning to traditional MedTechs whose preferred growth strategies have been debt financed acquisitions of near adjacent companies with physical product offerings optimised for hospitals?

In this Commentary

This Commentary explores the potential vulnerability of some MedTechs that have taken advantage of the recent period of low interest rates and cheap money to pursue growth strategies dominated by the acquisition of near adjacent companies, and have not balanced this with investments in innovative technologies. These may not fit neatly into their existing product portfolios and business models but are positioned to have a significant influence on the medical technology industry and healthcare systems over the next decade. Such technologies include: 3D bioprinting, robotics, virtual reality (VR), biometric devices and wearables, digital therapeutics, and telemedicine. Before describing these, we briefly outline the causes of the recent banking crisis and suggest how it might signal a weakness in corporate balance sheets more generally.

The demise of SVB

Founded in 1983, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, USA, SVB was the preferred bank of the large and rapidly growing tech sector, and it quickly grew to become the 16^th largest bank in America. Tech companies used SVB to hold their cash for payroll and other business expenses, which resulted in a significant inflow of deposits. Banks only keep a portion of such deposits as cash and invest the rest. Like many other banks, SVB invested billions in long-dated US government bonds. [Bonds are debt obligations, where an investor loans a sum of money (the principal) to a government or company for a set period, and in return receives a series of interest payments (the yield). When the bond reaches its maturity, the principal is returned to the investor]. Bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates; when rates rise, bond yields and prices fall. During the past decade of historically low interest rates, bonds became a preferred investment vehicle. SVB’s problem arose when central banks throughout the world increased rates to curb inflation, partly caused by the hike in energy prices following the Ukraine war. For instance, in 2022, the American Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times; from ~0 to 4.5%. As interest rates rose, SVB’s large bond portfolio lost money and the bank was forced to sell its bonds at a loss. On March 8, SVB announced a US$1.75bn capital raise to plug the gap caused by the sale of its loss-making bonds. This alerted customers to SVB’s financial challenges. They started withdrawing their deposits, which triggered a run on the bank.

MedTech growth strategies

Sudden hikes in interest rates may sound alarm bells for some traditional MedTechs that have pursued debt financing to acquire near adjacent companies rather than invest in R&D to develop disruptive technologies and innovative offerings. While R&D is a critical component of the industry, it is a complex and costly process, which often takes years to yield a product that can be marketed and generate revenue. By contrast, M&A activity allows companies to acquire existing products and technologies that have already been developed and tested, which reduces the risk and uncertainty of R&D. Further, with the industry becoming increasingly competitive, MedTechs need to achieve scale and market share to remain relevant. This can be achieved by the acquisition of near adjacencies, which allows acquirers to quickly expand their product portfolios, geographic reach, and customer base.

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The recent era of low interest rates and cheap money reinforced debt financed acquisitions as a growth strategy. Between 2011 and 2021, there were 2,365 M&A deals in the MedTech industry globally. However, to the extent that MedTechs focussed their acquisitions on near adjacencies, they may have missed out on acquiring innovative technologies positioned to reshape the industry over the next decade. This is because disruptive technologies often come from outside a company's core business and may not be immediately obvious to its leaders. Further, indebted companies facing high interest rates, might feel obliged to increase their revenues, which could result in them doubling down on cost cutting and optimizing their legacy products rather than investing in innovative R&D to drive revenue growth. Companies that adopt such business models could be at risk of having a dearth of technologies to drive future growth in a significantly more competitive healthcare ecosystem and challenging financial markets.

Disruptive technologies

The disruptive technologies we mention above shift the needle from hardware to software, from the needs of organizations to the needs of patients. While most of these are in their infancy, they all have the potential to transform healthcare in the next decade by providing new treatments for a variety of diseases and injuries, advancing drug development, enabling personalized medicine, reducing healthcare costs and improving medical training and surgical procedures. Let us explore these in a little more detail.

3D bioprinting

Three dimensional (3D) bioprinting is a relatively new technology, which involves the creation of 3D structures using living cells and holds promise for the future of regenerative medicine. The technology is an additive manufacturing process like 3D printing, which uses a digital file as a design to print an object layer by layer. However, 3D bioprinters print with cells and biomaterials, creating organ-like structures that let living cells multiply.

In 1999, a group of scientists at the Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine led by Anthony Atala, a bioengineer, urologist, and pediatric surgeon, created the first artificial organ with the use of bioprinting. Soon afterwards, bioprinting companies like Cellink (Sweden), Allevi (Italy), Regemat (Spain), and RegenHU (Switzerland) evolved. In 2010, Organovo, a biotech company founded in 2007 and based in San Diego, California, USA, introduced the first commercial bioprinter capable of producing functional human tissues that mimic key aspects of human biology and disease. In 2014, the company was the first to successfully engineer commercially available 3D-bioprinted human livers and kidneys. In 2019, researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, New York, USA developed a way to 3D bioprint living skin, complete with blood vessels. Also in 2019, researchers at Tel Aviv University in Israel announced the creation of a 3D bioprinted heart using a patient's own cells. Today, 3D bioprinting is used to create a wide range of tissues and organs, including skin, bone, cartilage, liver, and heart tissue.

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One of the most promising applications of 3D bioprinting is the creation of replacement organs using a patient's own cells. This could potentially eliminate the need for organ donors and reduce the risk of rejection. The technology also can be used to create complex tissues and structures, such as blood vessels, skin, and bone, which could be useful for patients with severe burns or injuries, as well as those with degenerative diseases. Further, 3D bioprinting can be used to create realistic models of human tissues for drug development and testing, which could help to reduce the cost and time associated with drug development, as well as reduce the need for animal testing. 3D bioprinting could enable the creation of customized implants and prosthetics that are tailored to a patient's unique anatomy.

According to findings of a 2023 report by MarketsandMarkets, in 2022, the global 3D bioprinting market was ~US$1.3bn, and expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~21% and reach >US$3bn by 2027.

Robotics

Medical and surgical robotics have a relatively short history. The first robot-assisted surgical system, the PUMA 560, [Programmable Universal Machine for Assembly], was developed in 1985 by the engineering firm Unimation, and used to perform a neurosurgical biopsy. A decade later, in 1994, the FDA approved the first robotic system for laparoscopic surgery, the Automated Endoscopic System for Optimal Positioning (AESOP), which was superseded in 2001 by the ZEUS Robotic Surgical System. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, researchers began exploring miniature in vivo robots for minimally invasive procedures. In 2000, the first robotic system designed for spinal surgery, SpineAssist, was developed by Mazor Robotics, an Israeli company, which Medronic’s acquired in 2018. In the mid-2000s, researchers began developing robots for use in orthopaedic surgery. Perhaps the biggest influence on robotic surgery was made by Intuitive Surgical, an American company founded in 1995. Intuitive developed the da Vinci Surgical System, which was approved by the FDA in 2000 and quickly became the most widely used surgical robot in the world. It has been used in millions of procedures across a wide range of specialities. Today, Intuitive Surgical is a Nasdaq traded company with a market cap of >US$84bn, annual revenues >US$6bn and >12,000 employees.

Medical and surgical robotics continue to evolve, with new technologies and applications being developed all the time. Such technologies offer the potential for more precise, efficient, and less invasive procedures, reduced operating times, improved accuracy, and fewer surgical complications. Demand for surgical robotics is increasing as are investments in robotic surgery companies and an increasing number of hospitals around the world are investing in robots. In the US, >250 hospitals use surgical robots for complex operations. Europe has also seen an increase in the number of hospitals that utilize robots for medical purposes. In 2016, there were over 7,000 medical robots in use globally, today there are >20,000.

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According to a Verified Market Research report, in 2021 the global market for medical robots was ~US$11bn and is expected to reach ~US$35bn by 2030. Scientists are developing the next generation of microbots, which are small enough to seamlessly travel through the human body performing repairs.

Virtual reality

The use of virtual reality (VR) in healthcare has been growing rapidly in recent years, but its history only dates from the early 1990s, when the first VR applications in healthcare focused on pain management and distraction therapy. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, researchers began exploring the use of VR for a wider range of medical applications, including surgical simulation, medical education, and mental health therapy. In recent years, the technology has been used in pain management, physical therapy, treatment of phobias and anxiety disorders, and to improve quality of life for hospice patients. During the Covid-19 pandemic, VR was used to help healthcare workers train for and cope with the challenges of the pandemic, as well as to provide virtual healthcare visits to patients who were unable to receive in-person care.

VR healthcare start-ups have attracted attention from major players. For example, in February 2020, Medtronic acquired UK start-up Digital Surgery for >US$300m. Founded in 2013 by two former surgeons, Digital Surgery first made waves with an app to help train surgeons using a database of common procedures. It also developed VR software to train doctors as well as AI tools for surgeons in the operating room. OxfordVR is also a British VR start-up. Founded in 2017 by Daniel Freeman, Professor of Clinical Psychology at Oxford University, the company is focused on mental health applications and has successfully automated psychological therapy. Users are guided by a virtual coach instead of a real-life therapist, which allows the treatment to reach significantly more patients. Another notable VR start-up is Firsthand Technology, founded in 2016 and headquartered in California, USA. The company's flagship product is a VR distraction therapy (VRDT) that offers immersive experiences designed to distract patients from the discomfort and anxiety associated with medical procedures. The company's offerings demonstrate the importance of addressing the psychological and emotional factors that impact health and well-being. In January 2020, Pear Therapeutics, a leader in digital prescriptions acquired Firsthand.

Over the next decade, expect VR to improve medical/surgical training by providing immersive, realistic simulations for medical students and health professionals, allowing them to practice procedures and techniques in a safe and controlled environment. In addition to helping patients to reduce pain and anxiety during medical procedures, VR can help to overcome barriers to care, such as distance and mobility, by providing virtual healthcare visits and remote monitoring of patients. Also, the technology is positioned to improve surgical planning. By providing surgeons with 3D models of patients' anatomy, allowing for more precise surgical planning, and reducing the risk of complications. Further, it can be used in physical therapy to improve patient engagement and motivation, leading to faster recovery times.

According to a 2021 Verified Market Research report, the VR healthcare market was valued at ~US$3bn in 2019, and is projected to reach ~US$57bn by 2030.

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Biometric devices and wearables

Biometric devices and wearable technologies aim to empower people with granular data that leads to actionable healthcare insights. It gives people the ability to collect their own health data and report them in a digital format to physicians, thus eliminating the need for in-person appointments for simple check-ups. Insurers and providers have also bought into wearable devices, relying on data collected from them to inform personalized health plans. Corporations too have adopted them to encourage healthy habits among employees working from home.

The use of biometric devices and wearables in healthcare has a relatively short, but influential history. In the early 2000s, the first commercial monitors were introduced, which allowed athletes to track their heart rates during exercise. The technology can provide a wealth of data about a patient's health, allowing healthcare providers to tailor treatment plans to individual patients, monitor chronic disorders, detect changes in real-time and intervene expeditiously. Biometric devices and wearables can help to detect early signs of illness or disease and can help patients to take a more active role in their own health and wellness. The technology has the potential to reduce the cost of care by enabling remote monitoring, preventing hospital readmissions, and reducing the need for in-person visits. Further, it can provide researchers with large amounts of patient data to facilitate AI-driven research into disease prevention and treatment.

One successful biometric device company is Fitbit, which was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California, USA. Fitbit offers a range of wearable devices that track physical activity, heart rate, sleep patterns, and other biometric data. The company’s products include smartwatches, activity trackers, and wireless headphones that integrate with its mobile app and web-based platform to provide users with personalized health and fitness insights. The company has developed partnerships with insurers and healthcare providers to use its products as part of employee wellness programmes. Since its founding, the company has sold >120m devices. In 2019, Fitbit was acquired by Google for US$2.1bn, which is a testament to the value of biometric data and the potential of wearables to transform healthcare.

The Apple Watch is the other market leader. Its first edition, launched in 2010, included features for tracking physical activity, heart rate, and other health metrics. An upgraded version, released in April 2015, helped to establish the health tracking market, which led to the mass adoption of wearable technologies. From the outset, the Apple Watch was conceptualized as a device that would help people stay connected in less invasive ways than with smartphones. Each iteration since its inception has increased the watch’s focus on improving health and wellbeing. In 2018, it was approved by the FDA as a medical device capable of alerting users to abnormal heart rhythms. Today there are ~150m Apple Watch users.

Another leader in the wearable sensor market is Abbott Laboratories, which provides a range of services for diabetes and cardiology. In November 2018, the company received FDA clearance for its FreeStyle Libre, a glucose reader smartphone app. Oura Health, a Finnish company founded in 2013, has launched a health wearable product in the form of a small ring that tracks activity, heart rate, body temperature, respiratory rate, and sleep data. As the technology continues to evolve, biometric devices and wearables are likely to play an increasing role in healthcare by helping people to participate in their own health and wellness, improving medical outcomes, and reducing healthcare costs.

According to findings from a 2019 ResearchandMarkets report, the wearable health technology industry is projected to see a CAGR >25% between 2020-2027, and annual sales are expected to reach ~US$60bn by 2027.

Digital Therapeutics

Digital therapeutics (DTx) are software-based interventions that aim to prevent, manage, or treat medical conditions by modifying patients’ behaviours. The therapeutics are delivered through mobile apps, virtual reality, or digital platforms. Their use in healthcare is growing, and the history of DTx can be traced back to the late 1990s when the first digital intervention for substance abuse was developed. In the early 2000s, a few digital interventions were introduced to manage chronic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension. However, it was not until the 2010s when the use of DTx started to gain momentum, driven by technological advances, the growing prevalence of chronic diseases, and the need for more cost-effective healthcare solutions.

In the November 2020 edition of Scientific America, DTx were ranked in the top-10 emerging technologies, which have demonstrated an ability to prevent and treat a variety of chronic conditions. In September 2017, Pear Therapeutics’ digital software programme, reSET, became the first FDA-approved DTx for substance use disorders (SUD) involving alcohol, cocaine, marijuana, and stimulants. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) >40m Americans, ≥12 years presented with SUDs in 2022. In 2020, Pear received FDA clearance for Somryst, an insomnia therapy app. The company has a pipeline of DTx offerings for a wide range of conditions, including multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, post-traumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. In 2020, the FDA approved EndeavorRx, which is produced by Boston based Akili Inc and is the first DTx delivered as a video game for children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Omada Health, is another digital therapeutics start-up, founded in 2011 and headquartered in California, USA, which provides personalized coaching and support to individuals with chronic health conditions.

Given that DTx are evidence-based and personalized, they can be tailored to meet the unique needs of each patient. This individualized approach can lead to enhanced patient outcomes and improved quality of life. DTx are often more cost-effective than traditional therapies, as they eliminate the need for in-person visits and reduce the need for expensive medications. This could help to lower healthcare costs. Digital therapeutics can be accessed from anywhere, any time and on any device, making them particularly useful for patients in remote or underserved regions. This could help to improve access to healthcare for millions of people. DTx can be integrated with other healthcare technologies, such as wearables, mobile health apps, and electronic health records, to provide a comprehensive approach to healthcare. This could lead to improved coordination of care and better health outcomes. Further, DTx could bring about a shift in treatment paradigms and change the way we approach chronic diseases: instead of relying solely on medications, patients could use digital therapeutics to manage their conditions and improve their overall health.

The FDA has created a new classification for digital therapeutics, which is likely to make it easier for more DTx solutions and services to obtain regulatory approval. In a 2020 survey of MedTech leaders by Deloitte, a consulting firm, 63% of respondents agreed that DTx will have a significant impact on the industry over the next 10 years. A report by Grand View Research, suggested that the global digital therapeutics market was valued at US$4.20bn in 2021, and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of ~26% from 2022 to 2030.

Telemedicine

The practice of using telecommunications and information technologies to provide remote medical services, has a history dating back to the early 20^th century. In 1924, the first radiologic images were transmitted by telephone between two towns in West Virginia, USA. In the 1950s and 1960s, the technology began to advance, and the first video consultation between a patient and a physician was conducted. In the 1970s, NASA began using telemedicine to provide medical care to astronauts in space. In 2001, the Indian Space Research Organization successfully linked large city hospitals and healthcare centres in remote rural areas. With the development of the internet in 1990s, remote healthcare exchanges became more widespread, particularly in rural areas where access to medical services were limited. In 1993, the American Telemedicine Association (ATA) was founded to promote the use of the technology. Since then, telemedicine has continued to evolve and expand.

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a surge in telemedicine usage as healthcare providers looked for ways to provide care while minimizing in-person contact. Based on a survey by McKinsey, a consulting firm; before the pandemic in 2019, ~11% of US patients used telehealth services. After COVID, that number had grown to ~50%. Some estimates suggest that during the height of the pandemic, the number of telemedicine appointments increased by 5,000%. According to McKinsey’s, 76% of US consumers report that they are interested in using telehealth in the future as a way to complement in-person physician visits.In August 2020, digital health history was made with the merger of two of the largest publicly traded virtual care companies Teladoc and Livongo. The former, a multi-billion-dollar market leader in telemedicine founded in 2002, and the latter, a multi-billion-dollar market leader in remote patient monitoring. The deal created a US$38bn entity, which was the market’s first full-stack virtual health company. Today, virtual health is a rapidly growing field, and combines virtual physician visits, remote patient monitoring, chatbots, algorithms, and analytics.

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Over the next decade, AI-powered telemedicine tools are likely to become more prevalent, helping to streamline and automate many aspects of the care delivery process, such as triage, diagnosis, and treatment plans. Remote patient monitoring technologies are likely to become more advanced and widespread, allowing healthcare providers to monitor patients’ health and vital signs remotely, which can improve outcomes and reduce hospitalizations. Expect healthcare providers to increasingly work as part of virtual care teams, collaborating with other health professionals, including specialists, to deliver care to patients in real-time, regardless of location. Telemedicine will continue to improve access to care, particularly for underserved populations such as those in rural and remote areas, and those with limited mobility or poor transportation options. The technology will also facilitate more personalized and patient-centred care, as providers will be able to tailor care plans to the specific needs and preferences of individual patients.

According to a report by MarketResearchFuture, the current global telemedicine market size is valued at ~US$67bn and is expected to reach >US$405bn by 2030, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of >22%.

Takeaways

We have described six evolving software driven technologies positioned to significantly influence healthcare systems in the next decade. Note that all are software driven and focused on patients to make care more personalized and sensitive to specific needs of individuals. Such technologies are in stark contrast to traditional medical devices, which overwhelmingly are physical devices designed to serve hospitals, rather than individual patients. Such a focus can lead to a lack of innovation, higher costs for patients, lower quality of care, and less personalized treatment options. A shift towards technology optimized to deliver patient-centered care is necessary to improve the quality of healthcare and ensure that patients receive the best possible outcomes. From our analysis it is not altogether clear whether traditional MedTechs are well positioned to achieve this.

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Devi Shetty

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What does the nephew of the 41st American President and the cousin of the 43rd have in common with an Indian doctor?

They're both passionate about using new technologies to provide high quality healthcare at affordable cost.

Bush and Shetty
Jonathan Bush, a relative of two former American Presidents, is the co-author of Where Does it Hurt? which calls for a healthcare revolution to give patients more choices, and affordable quality care.

A former Army medic and ambulance driver, Bush is the cofounder and CEO of athenahealth, one of the fastest growing American cloud-based service companies, which handles electronic medical records, billing, and patient communications for more than 50,000 US health providers.

Dr Devi Shetty is a brilliant heart surgeon, and veteran of more than 30,000 operations. However, his growing international reputation rests less on his medical skill, and more on his business brain. He wants to do for healthcare what Henry Ford did for the motorcar: "make quality healthcare affordable."

Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, and by thinking differently to traditional healthcare providers, he's built, India's largest private hospital group comprised of 23 hospitals in 14 Indian cities.

Shetty practices what Bush preaches
Bush suggests that the only way America will provide convenient quality healthcare at affordable cost, is if doctors do what they're trained to do, others perform routine services for less: for example, nurse-intensivists relieve surgeons from ICUs, and most importantly, if healthcare entrepreneurs are encouraged to tap into the transformative power of the marketplace.

For the past 15 years Shetty has been practicing what Bush is now preaching. Narayana Health provides high quality healthcare, with compassion at affordable cost on a large scale. For instance in 2013, its 1,000-bed specialist heart hospital in Bangalore alone, performed a staggering 6,000 operations, half of them on children. By contrast, in the same year, Great Ormond Street Hospital in London performed less than 600.

In addition to hospitals, Shetty has developed a telemedicine practice, which reaches 100 facilities throughout India and more than 50 in Africa. Narayana Health is also Indiaâ€™s largest kidney-care provider. Shetty has started a micro-insurance program backed by the government that enables three million farmers to have health coverage for as little as US$2 in annual premiums. Over the next five years, Shetty plans to grow Narayana Health four times its present size and become a 30,000-bed hospital chain.

Healthcare change will come from developing nations
Bush says, the only way to build a flourishing health marketplace that everyone wants and can afford is for Americans to demand more from their health providers, and accept greater responsibility for their own health.

This will not happen, and Shetty explains why.

Shetty argues that the greatest advances in healthcare will not come from wealthy nations like the US and UK, but from developing nations. Rapidly changing technologies provide opportunities for developing nations to leapfrog wealthy nations, which are encumbered by entrenched and aging technologies.

Hospitals in developing countries with few advanced procedures can quickly leapfrog world-class hospitals such as those in the US and the UK, says Shetty. Instead of slowly replacing aging technologies, they can quickly implement innovative operational designs, and state-of-the-art technologies, which gives them a competitive advantage.

Narayana Health City Cayman
This is what Shetty has done in the Cayman Islands. Backed by Ascension, the largest private health network in the US, and the Cayman government, which has designated a 200-acre site for the development of Narayana Health City Cayman.

The first phase, which opened in February 2014, is a 104-bed tertiary hospital, which provides surgeries for less than half the average US price, with quality outcomes that match or exceed the very best US hospitals. Narayana Health City Cayman is expected to develop into a 2000-5000-bed conglomeration of JCI accredited multiple super speciality hospitals in a single campus providing affordable healthcare to thousands.

Takeaway
Americans will have access to high quality healthcare at affordable cost, but it wonâ€™t happen in the way that Bush anticipates. Grand Cayman is only a 30minute flight from Miami.

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