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  • Macroeconomic shocks, including financial crises, geopolitical conflicts, and technological advancements, are creating significant disruptions for healthcare and MedTech companies
  • AI presents transformative opportunities for the industry, but also introduces challenges such as labour displacement and heightened cybersecurity vulnerabilities
  • Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan are already affecting healthcare systems and are likely to cause greater turbulence in the near future
  • Climate change, an intensifying crisis, poses long-term threats to both the healthcare and MedTech sectors

How Macroeconomic Shocks Shape Healthcare and MedTech

In their insightful 2024 publication, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz offer a timely and thought-provoking perspective of how businesses can navigate the increasingly complex landscape of macroeconomic challenges. Their work questions traditional approaches to risk management, particularly the reliance on deterministic models that fail to capture the full range of possible outcomes. By emphasising the non-linear, interconnected nature of modern crises, the authors encourage businesses to employ more adaptive strategies to survive and thrive in uncertain times.

Their work is especially relevant to healthcare and MedTech companies, which operate in environments defined by constant innovation, regulatory complexity, and the unpredictability of public health. These industries are now facing an era of increased uncertainty, driven by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), the threat of infectious diseases, geopolitical instability, and the growing impact of climate change. Such forces influence how healthcare is delivered and how MedTech innovations are developed, necessitating more agile business strategies.

Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz's critique of traditional risk frameworks is particularly relevant for these sectors. They highlight the importance of flexibility and resilience in responding to rapidly evolving shocks. However, while their work effectively underscores the need for adaptability, it only touches on the impact that the above-mentioned disruptions are already having on healthcare and MedTech. Their insights pave the way for a deeper exploration of these transformative forces, offering a starting point for further discussion.
 

 
The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Healthcare and MedTech

Macroeconomic shocks - whether driven by financial crises, political instability, or technological disruptions - create challenges for healthcare and MedTech companies. Events like pandemics, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global supply chains, alter patient demand, and derail innovation efforts. Traditionally, healthcare companies have managed these risks through strategies like diversification, risk-sharing agreements, and robust contingency planning. Yet, as Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz suggest, the increasing complexity of the healthcare ecosystem - amplified by rapid technological advancements, shifting regulatory landscapes, and rising patient expectations -makes both predicting and mitigating these shocks increasingly difficult.

The authors provide a nuanced analysis by arguing that not all macroeconomic shocks lead to crises, and that misjudging their potential impact can result in poor decision-making. In healthcare, this balance is important. Overestimating the effects of short-term disruptions, like a new regulatory hurdle, can lead to halted innovation and unnecessary resource allocation. On the other hand, underestimating the long-term consequences of major shocks, such as a global pandemic or sustained geopolitical instability, can jeopardise a company's operations and future viability.

Their thesis emphasises the need for healthcare and MedTech companies to adopt a balanced, forward-looking approach to manage uncertainty. Flexibility and adaptability are key to safeguarding patient care, maintaining profitability, and continuing innovation in the face of unpredictable macroeconomic forces. The authors' framework offers a valuable lens through which companies can better navigate this volatility and build resilience in an ever-changing world.

 
AI: Transforming Healthcare and MedTech

AI stands apart from previous technologies with its abiltiy to learn at exponential rates, autonomously adapt, and make real-time decisions that influence future outcomes. This capability marks it as one of the most impactful shifts in healthcare and MedTech. Already AI is redefining diagnostics, treatment pathways, and operational efficiencies, offering new ways to deliver personalised care, automate administrative tasks, and enhance decision-making. For companies that effectively integrate AI, the potential rewards include improved patient outcomes, reduced costs, and streamlined clinical operations.
However, the adoption of AI also brings challenges, particularly related to job displacement, regulatory uncertainty, and data privacy. Healthcare workers may face redundancy as automation increases, and integration into clinical decision-making raises ethical and legal concerns. Moreover, AI’s dependency on large datasets intensifies concerns about cybersecurity and data breaches, which could lead to financial and reputational damage for companies that fail to secure sensitive patient information. In a highly regulated industry like healthcare, the pace of AI adoption could also outstrip regulatory frameworks, creating uncertainty for companies trying to balance innovation with compliance.
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Transforming Healthcare with Multimodal AI
For MedTech companies, AI’s power to enhance product development and clinical testing introduces both opportunities and competitive pressures. Early adopters may gain a technological edge, while those slow to integrate it may find themselves left behind in an increasingly automated world.
 
Infectious Diseases: A Persistent Threat

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerability of global healthcare systems and MedTech supply chains, compelling companies to rethink their resilience strategies. From shortages in personal protective equipment (PPE) to disrupted clinical trials, the pandemic revealed significant weaknesses throughout the healthcare ecosystem. Yet, COVID-19 is just one example in a broader trend. Other regional health crises - such as Ebola in West Africa, Zika in the Americas, and SARS in Asia – demonstrate how infectious diseases transcend national borders. With the speed and scale of global travel, these outbreaks can spread rapidly, making containment efforts increasingly challenging.

Compounding this issue is the rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), exacerbated by climate change, which threatens to fuel the frequency and severity of such disease outbreaks. As temperatures rise and environmental conditions change, new pathogens can emerge, while existing ones may evolve into more treatment-resistant forms. In this context, it seems reasonable to anticipate a rise in pandemics as well as localised infectious disease events.

Infectious diseases not only disrupt healthcare delivery but also change patient behaviour and healthcare priorities. During these flare-ups, demand for critical products, such as diagnostics or respiratory support devices, often surges, while elective procedures and non-urgent care often decline, impacting other revenue streams. Preparing for such volatility requires adaptable supply chains, scalable manufacturing, and flexible healthcare infrastructure. Investment in telehealth, remote patient monitoring, and digital health solutions will be crucial in maintaining continuity of care and mitigating the impacts of future occurences.

 
Geopolitical Shocks: War and Global Healthcare Systems

War and conflict are pervasive forces that continue to shape our world. For example, since its founding in 1776, the United States has been at war or involved in military conflict for 230 out of 248 years, illustrating how deeply entrenched conflict is in modern history. Today's geopolitical tensions, such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, and the Sudanese civil war have consequences that ripple through global healthcare systems. These conflicts disrupt healthcare supply chains, impede international research collaboration, and hinder the distribution of essential medicines and medical devices, creating challenges that affect patient care across the globe.

For instance, the Middle East conflicts not only strain local healthcare systems but also trigger shortages in medical supplies and overwhelm trauma care facilities. In regions like Sudan, Gaza, and Lebanon, the continuous destruction of hospitals and medical infrastructure further intensifies the already dire healthcare crises, making access to basic medical services nearly impossible for large populations. Attacks on healthcare facilities exacerbate public health emergencies, limit humanitarian aid, and erode long-term health outcomes in conflict zones.

For MedTech and healthcare companies, geopolitical conflicts result in supply chain disruptions, component shortages, price surges, and delays in product development. The reliance on international suppliers for medical devices, equipment, and pharmaceuticals makes these industries vulnerable when supply chains are fractured by war. For example, Israel’s advanced medical manufacturing sector, a critical player in the global healthcare market, faces operational disruptions due to regional instability, directly impacting global exports and limiting the availability of cutting-edge medical technologies.

To safeguard against the risks posed by geopolitical shocks, healthcare companies must go beyond diversifying supply chains; they must also focus on protecting their intellectual assets and R&D capabilities, particularly in regions vulnerable to conflict, such as Israel, renowned for its cutting-edge R&D. This calls for innovative yet reliable strategies, such as duplicating essential intellectual assets in secure locations to safeguard critical R&D and shielding sensitive technologies from potential disruptions or loss. Additionally, establishing multiple manufacturing bases, safeguarding alternative supply sources, and maintaining strategic reserves of critical materials are no longer optional - they are essential steps for safeguarding business continuity and ensuring uninterrupted patient care during crises. As healthcare systems and industries become increasingly interconnected on a global scale, anticipating geopolitical instability, and proactively protecting intellectual assets are vital for guaranteeing that healthcare delivery remains robust, even amid war and conflict.

 
Climate Change and Antimicrobial Resistance: A Deadly Combination

Climate change exacerbates global health challenges, with rising temperatures, extreme weather, and environmental degradation intensifying the spread of infectious diseases and straining healthcare systems. However, a more insidious threat lies in the growing link between climate change and AMR. Higher temperatures and shifting weather patterns can alter ecosystems and promote the spread of resistant bacteria, especially in regions with poor sanitation and overcrowding.
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Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change: A Global Crisis

As climate change accelerates the spread of infectious diseases, increased reliance on antibiotics follows, further driving the development of resistance. Warmer temperatures can enhance bacterial growth rates and mutation frequencies, while flooding and water scarcity can spread resistant pathogens through contaminated water sources. Additionally, climate-induced displacement of populations creates conditions for inadequate medical care and overuse of antibiotics, worsening the AMR crisis.
This combination of AMR and climate change creates a vicious cycle, amplifying public health threats and placing pressure on healthcare systems. MedTech companies must respond by developing innovative diagnostics and treatment options that address both environmental impacts and rising resistance. Resilient supply chains, sustainable product designs, and new infection control technologies will be critical in navigating this dual threat. For healthcare providers, climate-adapted infrastructure and infection management roadmaps will be necessary to mitigate the deadly intersection of climate change and AMR.
 
Takeaways

Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz highlight the importance of adopting flexible, adaptive initiatives in navigating today’s volatile global economy. For healthcare and MedTech companies, the specific challenges posed by AI advancements, the persistent threat of infectious diseases, geopolitical tensions, and the accelerating influences of climate change demand heightened attention. These forces are already impacting healthcare delivery, research methodologies, and MedTech innovation, with their influence expected to grow in the coming years.

To thrive in such an environment, healthcare companies must go beyond short-term resilience. They need to develop robust, long-term strategies that address the interconnected and unpredictable nature of these macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions. By prioritising investments in evolving technologies, building resilient and diversified supply chains, providing safe havens for threatened intellectual assets in conflict regions, and fostering a culture of continuous innovation, healthcare companies can safeguard their operations and capitalise on emerging opportunities. This proactive approach will enable companies to better navigate future challenges and establish leadership in an increasingly complex and competitive global healthcare landscape. Ultimately, success in this era requires a shift in focus toward sustainable growth, preparedness, and agility in responding to ever-evolving external pressures.
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  • The intersection of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change impacts human health, ecosystems, and socio-economic stability
  • AMR complicates disease treatment and medical procedures, while climate change alters disease dynamics, expands pathogen ranges, and threatens clean water and sanitation
  • Combined, AMR and climate change strain healthcare systems, exacerbate health disparities, and threaten food security, especially for vulnerable communities
  • Coordinated global responses integrating health, environmental, and developmental perspectives are needed to promote resilience, sustainability, and improved health outcomes
 
Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change: A Global Crisis
 
On September 26, 2024, the United Nations General Assembly will convene a High-Level Meeting on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in New York. Drug-resistant infections transcend borders, making it impossible for any single country to tackle AMR on its own. This meeting offers an opportunity for global leaders to collaboratively address the threat that AMR poses to public health, food security, and the attainment of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. According to recent estimates, ~1.3m deaths worldwide in 2019 were caused by drug-resistant infections. If current trends continue, by 2050, AMR is projected to cause ~10m deaths annually, with costs to the global economy >US$100trn. Furthermore, this trend could force ~24m more people into extreme poverty over the next decade. These figures emphasise the threat posed by AMR, far surpassing the impact of COVID-19.

In the landscape of contemporary global health challenges, two significant and interconnected threats demand attention: AMR and climate change. These issues, though distinct in nature, share an interconnectedness that magnifies their collective impact on human health, ecological integrity, and socio-economic stability.

AMR poses a growing risk as microbes evolve to withstand the drugs designed to combat them. This phenomenon complicates the treatment of infectious diseases and jeopardises the effectiveness of medical procedures ranging from surgeries to cancer treatments. Concurrently, climate change exacerbates these challenges by altering disease dynamics, expanding the geographical range of vectors and pathogens, and compromising access to clean water and sanitation: fundamental prerequisites for health.

Moreover, the convergence of AMR and climate change intensifies the strain on vulnerable populations, exacerbates health disparities, and threatens food security and agricultural productivity. These issues transcend national borders, necessitating coordinated global responses that integrate health, environmental, and developmental perspectives. Hence, the UN meeting in September 2024, which marks only the second such gathering in its 79-year history. By recognising and addressing the interconnectedness of these dual crises, we can promote resilience, support sustainable development, and safeguard the wellbeing of present and future generations worldwide.

 
Understanding Antimicrobial Resistance

AMR refers to the ability of microorganisms - primarily bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites - to evolve and withstand the effects of antimicrobial agents, including antibiotics, antivirals, and antifungals. While this evolutionary process is natural, human activities have accelerated it, particularly through the overuse and misuse of antimicrobial drugs in human medicine, agriculture, and veterinary practices.
The consequences of AMR are extensive and multifaceted. In healthcare settings, infections that were once treatable with common antibiotics are becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to cure. This resistance leads to prolonged illnesses, longer hospital stays, higher medical costs, and increased mortality rates. Moreover, the rise of multidrug-resistant strains poses a threat to medical procedures, such as surgeries, chemotherapy, and organ transplants, which rely on effective antimicrobial prophylaxes and treatment.
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Beyond healthcare, AMR threatens food security and safety. The widespread use of antimicrobials in agriculture to promote growth and prevent disease in livestock leads to the development of resistant bacteria that can enter the food chain. These resistant strains can then be transmitted to humans through the consumption of contaminated food, direct contact with animals, or environmental pathways, such as water and soil.

The environmental impact of AMR is also significant. Antimicrobial residues from pharmaceuticals, agricultural runoff, and waste from healthcare facilities can persist in the environment, promoting the development and spread of resistance among environmental microorganisms. This environmental reservoir of resistance genes can transfer to human and animal pathogens, further complicating the management of infectious diseases.

Addressing AMR requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, including the promotion of responsible antimicrobial use, investment in research and development (R&D) of new drugs, and the implementation of robust surveillance systems to monitor resistance patterns. Public awareness and education on the prudent use of antimicrobials are equally important in mitigating this global threat.

 
The Rise of Climate Change

Climate change presents a distinct and significant set of challenges to global ecosystems and human societies. Primarily driven by anthropogenic activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial emissions, climate change manifests in rising global temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, more frequent and severe extreme weather events, and sea-level rise. These changes disrupt ecosystems, endanger biodiversity, and threaten human livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable communities with limited resources to adapt.

The implications of climate change are far-reaching and complex. Increased risks of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, lead to loss of life, property damage, and economic instability. Altered precipitation patterns can result in prolonged droughts in some regions and excessive rainfall in others, affecting agricultural productivity and leading to food and water insecurity. As these climatic conditions shift, they also change the habitats and behaviours of disease vectors like mosquitoes and ticks, altering disease patterns and potentially introducing new health threats to populations unaccustomed to such risks.

These environmental shifts have indirect effects on human health, exacerbating existing health disparities and amplifying the burden on healthcare systems already strained by other challenges, such as AMR. The displacement of populations due to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and deteriorating living conditions further compounds these issues, creating climate refugees who require humanitarian assistance and healthcare support.

 
Convergence of Threats

The convergence of AMR and climate change amplifies their individual impacts, creating a scenario where each phenomenon exacerbates the effects of the other. This interplay is illustrated through several mechanisms. Climate change significantly alters ecological systems, influencing the geographic distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases. Warmer temperatures, for example, can expand the range of disease vectors like mosquitoes, leading to increased transmission of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. In a context of AMR, where effective treatments for these diseases are diminishing, the burden on healthcare systems and affected populations intensifies, making it harder to manage and control outbreaks.

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Climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and heatwaves, pose risks to healthcare infrastructure and services. Disruptions in healthcare provision can compromise infection control measures and lead to increased transmission of resistant pathogens within healthcare settings. Moreover, displaced populations and compromised living conditions post-disaster create environments conducive to disease outbreaks, further challenging already strained healthcare resources. The vulnerability of healthcare infrastructure to climate-related disruptions emphasises the need for resilient systems that can withstand and adapt to these changes.
Agriculture is both a contributor to and influenced by climate change. Changing weather patterns impact crop yields and livestock production, leading to shifts in agricultural practices, including the increased use of antimicrobials in animal husbandry to prevent disease and promote growth under stressful conditions. Global antimicrobial use in food animal production was ~63,151 tons in 2010 and is expected to increase by ~67% to ~105,596 tons by 2030. Around 80% of food-producing animals and birds receive medication for at least part of their lives. Antimicrobials used in food animals constitute ~80% of the total antimicrobial consumption in the US each year. Most of the global rise (~67%) in antimicrobial use is driven by the growing population of animals raised for food.

Increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns also impact food safety, with potential implications for foodborne illnesses caused by resistant pathogens. These agricultural shifts not only shape food security but also introduce resistant bacteria into the food chain and the environment, posing further risks to human health.

Climate change also affects global trade routes and patterns, influencing the movement of goods and people. This interconnectedness facilitates the spread of infectious diseases and resistant microbes across borders, complicating efforts to contain AMR on a global scale. The emergence of new pathogens and resistant strains in different regions points to the need for coordinated international efforts to address these interconnected challenges. The combined threats of AMR and climate change necessitate comprehensive, integrated strategies that involve local, national, and global collaboration to mitigate their multifaceted impacts. Addressing these interconnected challenges is essential for promoting public health, environmental sustainability, and global socio-economic stability.

 
Projected Impact and Future Scenarios

The projected impact of the combined threats of AMR and climate change paints a distressing picture for global health and wellbeing. As AMR reduces the effectiveness of existing treatments, healthcare systems face increased pressure to develop new antimicrobial agents. However, the pipeline for new antibiotics is limited due to scientific and economic challenges. Climate change-induced health crises further strain these systems, potentially overwhelming their capacity to respond effectively. The economic burden of AMR is substantial. The World Bank estimates that AMR could result in ~US$1trn additional healthcare costs by 2050, and ~US$1trn to ~US$3.4trn gross domestic product (GDP) losses per year by 2030. Climate change exacerbates these costs through disruptions to agricultural productivity, healthcare expenditures, and labour productivity. Socio-economic disparities are likely to widen as vulnerable populations bear the brunt of these combined impacts, leading to increased poverty and reduced access to essential services.

Ecosystems, which provide services such as water purification, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity maintenance, are also under threat. Climate change and AMR compromise these services, undermining environmental resilience and exacerbating the vulnerability of both natural and human systems. The degradation of ecosystems can lead to the loss of biodiversity, further disrupting ecological balance and increasing the spread of resistant pathogens. As these environmental and health challenges intensify, the global community faces a future where traditional methods of disease control and prevention may no longer be effective, necessitating innovative approaches and robust international cooperation to safeguard human health and maintain ecological stability.

 
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

Tackling the intertwined challenges of AMR and climate change requires well-coordinated, comprehensive strategies implemented at local, national, and global levels. Enhanced surveillance and monitoring systems are important for tracking resistant pathogens and infectious diseases, allowing for early detection and response. Integrating environmental and climate data into these surveillance frameworks provides a more detailed understanding of disease dynamics and antimicrobial use patterns, helping to identify and address emerging threats more effectively.

Promoting the sustainable use of antimicrobials in human medicine, agriculture, and veterinary practices is essential to mitigate the spread of resistance. This involves advocating for responsible prescribing and use, implementing regulations to curb overuse and misuse, and promoting alternative practices such as vaccination and improved hygiene. These measures can reduce reliance on antimicrobial agents and slow the development of resistance.

Building resilient healthcare infrastructure capable of withstanding climate-related disruptions is critical for maintaining health services during crises. This includes enhancing infection prevention and control measures, improving disaster preparedness, and ensuring access to essential healthcare services during and after extreme weather events. Strengthening healthcare systems' capacity to cope with both AMR and climate impacts can prevent service disruptions and manage disease outbreaks more effectively.

Mitigating climate change through emissions reduction and adaptation strategies is crucial for reducing the frequency and severity of climate-related health impacts. Investing in renewable energy sources, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and developing resilient urban planning are integral to these efforts. Such investments address climate change and support broader efforts to combat AMR by reducing environmental pressures that contribute to resistance.

International collaboration and governance frameworks are indispensable in addressing the global challenges posed by AMR and climate change. These frameworks should promote information sharing, capacity building, and equitable access to resources. Global health agencies, such as the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), play pivotal roles in facilitating collaboration and setting international standards for antimicrobial use and climate resilience.

An approach that integrates health, environmental, and socio-economic considerations is necessary to effectively tackle these threats. By investing in R&D, promoting sustainable practices, and fostering international cooperation, the global community can develop strategies to mitigate the impacts of AMR and climate change. Such an approach will help safeguard public health, enhance ecological stability, and ensure socio-economic resilience, ultimately securing a healthier and more sustainable future for all.

 
Takeaways

The interconnected threats of AMR and climate change demand urgent and coordinated global action. Each poses challenges to human health, the environment, and socio-economic stability, but their convergence magnifies the impact, creating a complex web of risks that transcends borders and disciplines. Addressing these threats requires integrated strategies that recognise their interconnectedness, fostering resilience through sustainable practices, robust healthcare systems, and international cooperation. By enhancing surveillance, promoting responsible antimicrobial use, and mitigating climate change, we can build a future that not only curbs the rise of resistance and mitigates environmental degradation but also strengthens the foundations of global health and ecological integrity. The path forward necessitates innovation, investment, and a unified global commitment to safeguard the wellbeing of current and future generations. Let us hope that the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September 2024 to address this issue will energise international responses.
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Because of recent concerns raised by the UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA),colleagues suggested that we republish a Commentary entitled, “Slowing the steep rise in antimicrobial resistance”, which features Nobel Laureate Roger Kornberg. Since it was first published it has received >15,000 openings. UKHSA warned of a “hidden pandemic” this winter because last year, in the UK, 1 in 5 infections were resistant to antibiotic. The organization feared that as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted social mixing is likely to spread infections some of which will be resistant to antibiotics.
 
  • Currently 700,000 people die each year from Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) and this could rise to 10 milion by 2050
  • AMR could make routine surgeries and childbirth as dangerous and lethal as in the pre-antibiotic era killing millions and costing trillions worldwide
  • Doctors inappropriately prescribing antibiotics for minor aliments shorten the useful life of antibiotics threatening modern medicine as there is an antibiotic pipeline deficiency
  • 90% of GPs feel pressured by patients to prescribe antibiotics
  • 70% of GPs are unsure whether sore throat and respiratory infections are viral or bacterial resulting in 50% of sore throats receiving antibiotics
  • Clinical diagnosis leads to 50% of patients with a sore throat being prescribed antibiotics without having Group A Streptococcal infection
  • 30% of patients with pharyngitis will not be treated but will be infected with Group A Streptococci
  • 24% of doctors say they lack easy-to-use diagnostic tools
  • 10m prescriptions for antibiotics are handed out in England each year to patients who do not need them
  • A Nobel Laureate has developed a new technology to provide rapid, accurate, cost-effective diagnosis of bacterial sore throat resulting in informed prescribing and reducing unnecessary antibiotic usage
 
Slowing the steep rise of antimicrobial resistance
 
Should we listen when a professor of medicine and a Nobel Laureate says that the technology already exists to develop a cheap hand held device, which can rapidly and accurately diagnose a bacterial sore throat?  
 
Without such a device to determine whether minor ailments require antibiotics, doctors will continue to prescribe them, and thereby contribute to the steep rise in Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). In 2016 the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the UK government's NHS watchdog, reported that as many as 10m prescriptions for antibiotics are handed out in England every year to patients who do not need them. According to a 2016 report on AMR, by 2050 a staggering, “10m people will die from AMR each year . . . . The world needs rapid diagnostics to improve our use of antibiotics,” says the report.
 

Sore throat
 
Acute throat infections are among the most common infectious diseases presented to primary healthcare and A&E departments and are frequently misdiagnosed. They are responsible for 2 to 4% of all primary care visits. Viruses cause 85% to 95% of throat infections in adults and children younger than 5. For those aged 5 to 15, viruses cause about 70% of throat infections, with the other 30% due to bacterial infections, mostly group A β-hemolytic streptococcus (GAS), which can cause 0.5m deaths a year. There are challenges in diagnosing GAS because its signs and symptoms are often indistinguishable from viral and other causes of sore throat.
 
If a doctor intends to treat suspected GAS pharyngitis, it is generally recommended that laboratory confirmation of the presence of GAS be sought to limit unnecessary antibiotic prescription. The gold standard laboratory investigation is of a bacterial culture of a throat swab. However, this is expensive, and there is a relatively long lag time between the collection of the specimen and final microbiological diagnosis: so doctors tend not to it. 
 
Rapid antigen diagnostic tests (RADTs) are an alternative to the gold standard laboratory test for GAS. However, widespread use of RADTs has been hindered by low sensitivity for most commonly used RADTs (immunoassays). Reviews of RADTs performance have identified significant variability in the diagnostic accuracy, especially sensitivity, between different test methodologies.

 
Urgent need for rapid and accurate diagnostic test
 
A principal recommendation of a 2016 report on AMR is to ban doctors from prescribing antibiotics until they have carried out rapid tests to prove the infection is bacterial. The report also stresses that doctors need urgent help to temporise their use of antibiotics if AMR is to be reduced.

Notwithstanding, the AMR challenge is bigger than doctors overprescribing antibiotics. Farmers feed antibiotics to livestock and poultry, and spray them on crops to make our food supply ‘safer’. We dump antibiotics in rivers, and even paint them on the hulls of boats to prevent the build up of barnacles. However, it seems reasonable to suggest that successfully reducing doctors’ over prescribing antibiotics would represent a significant contribution to denting the burden of AMR. To do this, “We need a step change in the technology available . . . Governments of the richest countries should mandate now that, by 2020, all antibiotic prescriptions will need to be informed by up to date surveillance and a rapid diagnostic test,” urges the AMR report.
 
The technological ‘step change’, which the report says is essential, has already been achieved, says Roger Kornberg, Professor of Medicine at Stanford University and Nobel Laureate for Chemistry.Advanced biosensor technology enables virtually instantaneous, extraordinarily sensitive, electronic detection of almost any biomarker (protein, nucleic acid, small molecule, etc.). With relatively modest resources it would only be a matter of months to develop a simple, affordable handheld device, which not only would tell you immediately and accurately whether a sore throat requires antibiotics or not, but would also tell you which antibiotics you require, and for how long you should take them,” says Kornberg. See videos below in which Kornberg describes how tried and tested biosensor technology could facilitate rapid and accurate diagnosis of a sore throat.


Click to watch a cluster of videos by Professor Kornberg on Antimicrobial resistance and biosensor technology
Serious and growing threat
 
Each year, millions of people throughout the developed world present themselves to their doctors with minor ailments, such as a sore throat. 97% of these patients demand antibiotics although 90% of their ailments are viral and therefore do not require antibiotics. 90% of doctors, who do not have the means to rapidly and accurately determine whether a minor ailment requires antibiotics, feel pressured by patients to prescribe them.
 
A 2014 study of four million NHS patients from 537 GP practices in England found that more than 50% of those presenting with a minor ailment were prescribed antibiotics, despite warnings that the medication will not help, but increases their risk of developing resistance. The study, by scientists at Public Health England and University College London, published in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, found that antibiotic prescriptions for minor ailments increased by some 40% between 1999 and 2011. 70% of GPs surveyed said they prescribed antibiotics because they were unsure whether patients had viral or bacterial infections, and 24% of GPs said it was because of a lack of an easy-to-use, rapid and accurate diagnostic device.
 
Superbugs will kill millions and cost trillions
 
Concerned about the rising levels of drug resistance whereby microbes evolve to become immune to known drugs, in 2014 the UK Government, in collaboration with the Wellcome Trust, commissioned a review of the large and growing global burden of AMR. Jim O’Neill, a former Goldman Sachs chief economist who coined the phrase “BRICS”, was appointed to lead the endeavour and propose actions to tackle AMR. In 2015 O’Neill was elevated to the House of Lords, and appointed Secretary to the UK government’s Treasury.

During the 18 months it took O’Neill to complete his final report, one million people worldwide died from AMR. At least 25,000 people die each year in Europe from AMR. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 2m people in the US become infected with resistant bacteria every year, and at least 23,000 of them die. According to O’Neill, “If we don't do something about antibiotic resistance, we will be heading towards a world with no-antibiotic treatments for those who need them.”
 
A threat to modern medicine
 
O’Neill’s findings are congruent with warnings from the World Health Organization (WHO), which suggests AMR is a crisis worse than the Aids epidemic – which has caused some 25m deaths worldwide – and threatens to turn the clock back on modern medicine. The misuse of antibiotics has created, “A problem so serious that it threatens the achievements of modern medicine. A post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries can kill, far from being an apocalyptic fantasy, is instead a very real possibility for the 21st century,” says a 2014 WHO report. “Superbugs risk making routine surgery potentially lethal, killing millions and costing the world economy US$100 trillion a year by the middle of the century,” says O’Neill.
 
These dire warnings are supported by a case study of AMR published in Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy in 2016, which suggests that we might be closer to a "post-antibiotic era" than we think. A particular group of bacteria (Gram-negative) have become increasingly resistant to currently available antimicrobial drugs. Colistin is one of the only antibiotics that still show some effectiveness against such infections, but the study suggests that even Colistin may no longer be effective.
 
Takeaways
 
AMR is widely recognized as a serious and growing worldwide threat to human health. New forms of AMR continue to arise and spread, leaving doctors with few weapons to bring potentially life-threatening infections under control. The injudicious use of antimicrobials, and the proliferation of AMR pathogens are compounded by the inability to rapidly and accurately diagnose minor ailments such as sore throats. Professor Kornberg has an answer.
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  • Currently 700,000 people die each year from Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) and this could rise to 10 milion by 2050
  • AMR could make routine surgeries and childbirth as dangerous and lethal as in the pre-antibiotic era killing millions and costing trillions worldwide
  • Doctors inappropriately prescribing antibiotics for minor aliments shorten the useful life of antibiotics threatening modern medicine as there is an antibiotic pipeline deficiency
  • 90% of GPs feel pressured by patients to prescribe antibiotics
  • 70% of GPs are unsure whether sore throat and respiratory infections are viral or bacterial resulting in 50% of sore throats receiving antibiotics
  • Clinical diagnosis leads to 50% of patients with a sore throat being prescribed antibiotics without having Group A Streptococcal infection
  • 30% of patients with pharyngitis will not be treated but will be infected with Group A Streptococci
  • 24% of doctors say they lack easy-to-use diagnostic tools
  • 10m prescriptions for antibiotics are handed out in England each year to patients who do not need them
  • A Nobel Laureate has developed a new technology to provide rapid, accurate, cost-effective diagnosis of bacterial sore throat resulting in informed prescribing and reducing unnecessary antibiotic usage
 
Slowing the steep rise of antimicrobial resistance
 
Should we listen when a professor of medicine and a Nobel Laureate 
says that the technology already exists to develop a cheap hand held device, which can rapidly and accurately diagnose a bacterial sore throat?  
 
Without such a device to determine whether minor ailments require antibiotics, doctors will continue to prescribe them, and thereby contribute to the steep rise in Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). In 2016 the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the UK government’s NHS watchdog, reported that as many as 10m prescriptions for antibiotics are handed out in England every year to patients who do not need them. According to a 2016 report on AMR, by 2050 a staggering, “10m people will die from AMR each year . . . . The world needs rapid diagnostics to improve our use of antibiotics,” says the report.
 

Sore throat
 
Acute throat infections are among the most common infectious diseases presented to primary healthcare and A&E departments and are frequently misdiagnosed. They are responsible for 2 to 4% of all primary care visits. Viruses cause 85% to 95% of throat infections in adults and children younger than 5. For those aged 5 to 15, viruses cause about 70% of throat infections, with the other 30% due to bacterial infections, mostly group A β-hemolytic streptococcus (GAS), which can cause 0.5m deaths a year. There are challenges in diagnosing GAS because its signs and symptoms are often indistinguishable from viral and other causes of sore throat.
 
If a doctor intends to treat suspected GAS pharyngitis, it is generally recommended that laboratory confirmation of the presence of GAS be sought to limit unnecessary antibiotic prescription. The gold standard laboratory investigation is of a bacterial culture of a throat swab. However, this is expensive, and there is a relatively long lag time between the collection of the specimen and final microbiological diagnosis: so doctors tend not to it. 
 
Rapid antigen diagnostic tests (RADTs) are an alternative to the gold standard laboratory test for GAS. However, widespread use of RADTs has been hindered by low sensitivity for most commonly used RADTs (immunoassays). Reviews of RADTs performance have identified significant variability in the diagnostic accuracy, especially sensitivity, between different test methodologies.

 
Urgent need for rapid and accurate diagnostic test
 
A principal recommendation of a 2016 report on AMR is to ban doctors from prescribing antibiotics until they have carried out rapid tests to prove the infection is bacterial. The report also stresses that doctors need urgent help to temporise their use of antibiotics if AMR is to be reduced.

Notwithstanding, the AMR challenge is bigger than doctors overprescribing antibiotics. Farmers feed antibiotics to livestock and poultry, and spray them on crops to make our food supply ‘safer’. We dump antibiotics in rivers, and even paint them on the hulls of boats to prevent the build up of barnacles. However, it seems reasonable to suggest that successfully reducing doctors’ over prescribing antibiotics would represent a significant contribution to denting the burden of AMR. To do this, “We need a step change in the technology available . . . Governments of the richest countries should mandate now that, by 2020, all antibiotic prescriptions will need to be informed by up to date surveillance and a rapid diagnostic test,” urges the AMR report.
 
The technological ‘step change’, which the report says is essential, has already been achieved, says Roger Kornberg, Professor of Medicine at Stanford University and Nobel Laureate for Chemistry.Advanced biosensor technology enables virtually instantaneous, extraordinarily sensitive, electronic detection of almost any biomarker (protein, nucleic acid, small molecule, etc.). With relatively modest resources it would only be a matter of months to develop a simple, affordable handheld device, which not only would tell you immediately and accurately whether a sore throat requires antibiotics or not, but would also tell you which antibiotics you require, and for how long you should take them,” says Kornberg. See videos below in which Kornberg describes how tried and tested biosensor technology could facilitate rapid and accurate diagnosis of a sore throat.

 
 
Bionsensors in diagnosing a sore throat

 


Instant diagnosis of a strep throat

 
Serious and growing threat
 
Each year, millions of people throughout the developed world present themselves to their doctors with minor ailments, such as a sore throat. 97% of these patients demand antibiotics although 90% of their ailments are viral and therefore do not require antibiotics. 90% of doctors, who do not have the means to rapidly and accurately determine whether a minor ailment requires antibiotics, feel pressured by patients to prescribe them.
 
A 2014 study of four million NHS patients from 537 GP practices in England found that more than 50% of those presenting with a minor ailment were prescribed antibiotics, despite warnings that the medication will not help, but increases their risk of developing resistance. The study, by scientists at Public Health England and University College London, published in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, found that antibiotic prescriptions for minor ailments increased by some 40% between 1999 and 2011. 70% of GPs surveyed said they prescribed antibiotics because they were unsure whether patients had viral or bacterial infections, and 24% of GPs said it was because of a lack of an easy-to-use, rapid and accurate diagnostic device.
 
Superbugs will kill millions and cost trillions
 
Concerned about the rising levels of drug resistance whereby microbes evolve to become immune to known drugs, in 2014 the UK Government, in collaboration with the Wellcome Trust, commissioned a review of the large and growing global burden of AMR. Jim O’Neill, a former Goldman Sachs chief economist who coined the phrase “BRICS”, was appointed to lead the endeavour and propose actions to tackle AMR. In 2015 O’Neill was elevated to the House of Lords, and appointed Secretary to the UK government’s Treasury.

During the 18 months it took O’Neill to complete his final report, one million people worldwide died from AMR. At least 25,000 people die each year in Europe from AMR. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 2m people in the US become infected with resistant bacteria every year, and at least 23,000 of them die. According to O’Neill, “If we don't do something about antibiotic resistance, we will be heading towards a world with no-antibiotic treatments for those who need them.”
 
A threat to modern medicine
 
O’Neill’s findings are congruent with warnings from the World Health Organization (WHO), which suggests AMR is a crisis worse than the Aids epidemic – which has caused some 25m deaths worldwide – and threatens to turn the clock back on modern medicine. The misuse of antibiotics has created, “A problem so serious that it threatens the achievements of modern medicine. A post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries can kill, far from being an apocalyptic fantasy, is instead a very real possibility for the 21st century,” says a 2014 WHO report. “Superbugs risk making routine surgery potentially lethal, killing millions and costing the world economy US$100 trillion a year by the middle of the century,” says O’Neill.
 
These dire warnings are supported by a case study of AMR published in Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy in 2016, which suggests that we might be closer to a "post-antibiotic era" than we think. A particular group of bacteria (Gram-negative) have become increasingly resistant to currently available antimicrobial drugs. Colistin is one of the only antibiotics that still show some effectiveness against such infections, but the study suggests that even Colistin may no longer be effective.
 
Takeaways
 
AMR is widely recognized as a serious and growing worldwide threat to human health. New forms of AMR continue to arise and spread, leaving doctors with few weapons to bring potentially life-threatening infections under control. The injudicious use of antimicrobials, and the proliferation of AMR pathogens are compounded by the inability to rapidly and accurately diagnose minor ailments such as sore throats. Professor Kornberg has an answer.
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