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- Over the past decade MedTech valuations have outperformed the market without changing its business model
- The healthcare ecosystem is rapidly changing and MedTech is facing significant headwinds which require change
- MedTech’s future growth and value will be derived from data and smart analytics rather than manufacturing
- MedTech leaders will be required to leverage both physical and digital assets
Increasing MedTech’s future growth and value
Over the past decade, the medical device (MedTech) industry has enjoyed relatively high valuations and outperformed broader market indices without changing its manufacturing business model. Some MedTech leaders suggest that because the industry’s product offerings are essential, demand for them is increasing as populations grow and age, so unlike other industries, MedTech is immune to market swings and its asset value will continue to increase. As a consequence of this mindset, MedTech has been reluctant to change and slow to develop digitization strategies. Notwithstanding, digitization is an in-coming tide and positioned to impose a step-change on the industry. Future MedTech leaders will need to derive increased growth and value from digitization and emerging markets while improving the efficiency of their legacy manufacturing business and meeting quarterly earnings’ targets.
According to a 2018 report by the consulting firm Ernst & Young,“Stagnant R&D investment, low revenue growth and slow adoption of digital and data technologies suggest that entrenched MedTech companies are overly focused on short-term growth, even as the threat of large tech conglomerates entering the space grows larger, which, in addition to the changing global healthcare ecosystem, threatens future revenue growth".
According to a 2018 report by the consulting firm Ernst & Young,“Stagnant R&D investment, low revenue growth and slow adoption of digital and data technologies suggest that entrenched MedTech companies are overly focused on short-term growth, even as the threat of large tech conglomerates entering the space grows larger, which, in addition to the changing global healthcare ecosystem, threatens future revenue growth".
In this Commentary
This Commentary suggests that to create future growth and value, MedTech will have to (i) leverage data generated by medical devices, patients, payers and healthcare providers to develop clinical insights and trend analysis, which are expected to significantly improve patient outcomes and reduce costs, and (ii) substantially increase its share of the large and rapidly growing emerging markets. We suggest that there is a significant relationship between MedTech’s digital capacity and competences and its ability to increase its share of emerging Asian markets. But first we briefly describe the MedTech industry and its traditional markets and draw attention to some concerns, which include the relative low rates of top-line growth, stagnant R&D and share buybacks, M&A slowdown, giant tech companies entering the healthcare market, and challenges to recruit and retain millennials with natural digital skills and abilities.
The medical device industry
Concern # 1: Reduced growth rates
Population growth and aging
Concern # 2: Stagnate R&D spend and share buybacks
The medical device industry
The MedTech industry designs, manufactures and markets more than 0.5m different products to diagnose, monitor and treat patients. These include wearable devices such as insulin pumps and blood glucose monitors, implanted devices such as pacemakers and metal plates, and stationary devices that range from instruments to sophisticated scanning machines. Medical devices can be instrumental in helping healthcare providers achieve enhanced patient outcomes, reduced healthcare costs, improved efficiency and new ways of engaging and empowering patients. The principal business model employed by the industry is to manufacture innovative products relatively cheaply and sell them expensively in wealthy developed regions of the world; predominantly North America, Europe and Japan; which although representing only 13% of the world’s population account for 86% of the global MedTech market share. This premium pricing model is predicated upon doctors’ and health providers’ belief that MedTech products are of superior quality and safety. Notwithstanding, as eye-watering healthcare costs escalate, providers and regulators demand better evidence of clinical and economic value to justify the pricing and use of MedTech products. Over the next five years, the global MedTech industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of between 4% and 5.6% and reach global sales of some US$595bn by 2024.
Concern # 1: Reduced growth rates
Since the worse post-war recession ended in 2009, MedTech asset valuations have outperformed the market. Notwithstanding, of increasing concern is the slowdown of the industry’s revenue growth rates to single digits. The industry's aggregate revenue grew to US$379bn in 2017, an annual average industry growth rate of 4%, which now appears to be the new normal, and is significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of 15%, which the industry enjoyed between 2000-2007. The reduction in top-line growth rates is largely attributed to the world’s growing and aging population and the consequent growth in the incidence rates of chronic conditions, which increases the burden on overstretched healthcare budgets and intensifies pressure on MedTech’s to reduce their prices.
Population growth and aging
The aging population is driven by improvements in life expectancy. People are living longer and reaching older ages as fertility decreases and quality healthcare increases. People are having fewer children later in life. Some 8.5% of the global population (617m) have ages 65 and over. This is projected to rise to nearly 17% by 2050 (1.6bn). The number of Americans aged 65 and older is projected to more than double from 46m today to over 98m by 2060 – from 15% to 24% of the total US population. Around 18% of the UK population were aged 65 years or over in 2017, compared with 16% in 2007. This is projected to grow to 21% by 2027.
Concern # 2: Stagnate R&D spend and share buybacks
In addition to relatively low revenue growth rates, MedTech R&D spend has stagnated over the past decade despite the need for companies to develop new and innovative product offerings, which drive top-line sales. Over the same period, MedTech returned more cash to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends (US$16.4bn) than it spent on R&D.
To the extent that share buybacks extract, rather than create value why are they popular? One suggestion is that because share incentive plans represent a significant portion of executive compensation, share buybacks make it easier for executives to meet earning-per-share (eps) targets by reducing the number of shares, in the 1970s, share buybacks were effectively banned in the US amid concerns that executives might use them to manipulate share prices. However, in 1982 the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lightened its definition of stock manipulation, and share buybacks became popular again.
To the extent that share buybacks extract, rather than create value why are they popular? One suggestion is that because share incentive plans represent a significant portion of executive compensation, share buybacks make it easier for executives to meet earning-per-share (eps) targets by reducing the number of shares, in the 1970s, share buybacks were effectively banned in the US amid concerns that executives might use them to manipulate share prices. However, in 1982 the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lightened its definition of stock manipulation, and share buybacks became popular again.
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- Two Boston Consulting Group studies say MedTech innovation productivity is in decline
- A history of strong growth and healthy margins render MedTechs slow to change their outdated business model
- The MedTech sector is rapidly shifting from production to solutions
- The dynamics of MedTechs' customer supply chain is changing significantly and MedTech manufacturers are no longer in control
- Consolidation among buyers - hospitals and group purchasing organisations (GPO) - adds downward pressure on prices
- Independent distributors have assumed marketing, customer support and education roles
- GPOs have raised their fees and are struggling to change their model based on aggregate volume
- Digitally savvy new entrants are reinventing how healthcare providers and suppliers work together
- Amazon’s B2B Health Services is positioned to disrupt MedTechs, GPOs and distributors
- MedTech manufacturers need to enhance their digitization strategies to remain relevant
MedTech must digitize to remain relevant
MedTech companies need to accelerate their digital strategies and integrate digital solutions into their principal business plans if they are to maintain and enhance their position in an increasingly solution orientated healthcare ecosystem. With growing focus on healthcare value and outcomes and continued cost pressures, MedTechs need to get the most from their current portfolios to drive profitability. An area where significant improvements might be made in the short term is in MedTechs' customer facing supply chains. To achieve this, manufacturing companies need to make digitization and advanced analytics a central plank of their strategies.
In this Commentary
This Commentary describes the necessity for MedTechs to enhance their digitization strategies, which are increasingly relevant, as MedTech companies shift from production to solution orientated entities. In a previous Commentary we argued that MedTechs history of strong growth and healthy margins make them slow to change and implement digital strategies. Here we suggest that the business model, which served to accelerate MedTechs' financial success over the past decade is becoming less effective and device manufacturers need not only to generate value from the sale of their product offerings, but also from data their devices produce so they can create high quality affordable healthcare solutions. This we argue will require MedTechs developing innovative strategies associated with significantly increasing their use of digital technology to enhance go-to-market activities, strengthen value propositions of products and services and streamline internal processes.
MedTechs operate with an outdated commercial model
Our discussion of digitization draws on two international benchmarking studies undertaken by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The first, published in July 2013 and entitled, “Fixing the MedTech Commercial Model: Still Deploying ‘Milkmen’ in a Megastore World” suggests that the high gross margins that MedTech companies enjoy, particularly in the US, hide unsustainable high costs and underdeveloped commercial skills. According to BCG the average MedTech company’s selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses - measured as a percentage of the cost of goods sold - is 3.5 times higher than the average comparable technology company. The study concludes that MedTechs' outdated business model, dubbed the “milkman”, will have to change for companies to survive.
BCG’s follow-up 2017 study
In 2017 BCG published a follow-up study entitled, “Moving Beyond the ‘Milkman’ Model in MedTech”, which surveyed some 6,000 employees and benchmarked financial and organizational data from 100 MedTech companies worldwide, including nine of the 10 largest companies in the sector. The study suggested that although there continued to be downward pressure on device prices, changes in buying processes and shrinking gross margins, few MedTech companies “have taken the bold moves required to create a leaner commercial model”.
According to the BCG’s 2017 study, “Overall, innovation productivity [in the MedTech sector] is in decline. In some product categories, low-cost competitors - including those from emerging markets - have grown rapidly and taken market share from established competitors. At the same time, purchasers are becoming more insistent on real-world evidence that premium medical devices create value by improving patient outcomes and reducing the total costs of care”. The growth and spread of value-based healthcare has shifted the basis of competition beyond products, “toward more comprehensive value propositions and solutions that address the entire patient pathway”. In this environment, MedTechs have no choice but to use data to deliver improved outcomes and a better customer experience for patients, healthcare providers and payers.
According to the BCG’s 2017 study, “Overall, innovation productivity [in the MedTech sector] is in decline. In some product categories, low-cost competitors - including those from emerging markets - have grown rapidly and taken market share from established competitors. At the same time, purchasers are becoming more insistent on real-world evidence that premium medical devices create value by improving patient outcomes and reducing the total costs of care”. The growth and spread of value-based healthcare has shifted the basis of competition beyond products, “toward more comprehensive value propositions and solutions that address the entire patient pathway”. In this environment, MedTechs have no choice but to use data to deliver improved outcomes and a better customer experience for patients, healthcare providers and payers.
MedTech distributors increasing their market power and influence
Although supply chain costs tend to be MedTechs' second-highest expense after labour, companies have been reluctant to employ digital strategies to reduce expenses and increase efficiencies. As a consequence, their customer supply chains tend to be labour intensive relationship driven with little effective sharing of data between different territories and sales teams. Customer relations are disaggregated with only modest attention paid to patients and payors and insufficient emphasis on systematically collecting, storing and analysing data to support value outcomes.
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In 2015 expect increasing healthcare challenges from (i) aging populations and rising chronic illnesses, (ii) escalating costs and patchy quality, (iii) access, (iv) changing technologies, and (v) security.
Aging populations and chronic illness Aging populations and the escalating prevalence of chronic lifelong diseases, will drive demand for healthcare in 2015, and impose significant burdens on healthcare systems. Europe has the world's highest proportion of people over 60. By 2017, 20% of Europeans will be over 65. By 2050 about 40% will be over 60. The US has similar trends. This aging and the increasing prevalence of chronic lifestyle diseases will continue to drive healthcare expansion, and pressure to reduce healthcare costs. |
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Was the UK Department of Health (DH) right to axe its telehealth project?
Telehealth Telehealth is a combination of medical devices and communication technology used to monitor diseases and symptoms, and support health and social care remotely. It represents a solution to the challenges of rising healthcare costs, an aging population, and the increasing prevalence of chronic diseases. The Whole Systems Demonstrator Project The DH's Whole Systems Demonstrator (WSD) project was an ill-conceived top-down endeavour doomed to fail. It cost £31m, and was the world's largest randomised control trial of telehealth involving 7,000 patients, 240 primary care practices across three UK sites. 3millionpeople In 2011 an interim evaluation concluded that the WSD project could achieve a 45% reduction in mortality rates, a 15% drop in A&E visits, a 14% reduction in bed-days, and an 8% reduction in tariff costs. These estimates are in line with international findings. Based on a review of some 2,000 studies, GlobalMed concludes that telehealth has reduced hospital re-admissions by 83%, decreased home nursing visits by 66%, and lowered overall costs by more than 30%. Nothing else has worked to reduce such costs. It was projected that by 2017 three million people in England with long term conditions would be recording their medical data and vital signs remotely, and sending them, via email and text, directly to GPs. This could save the NHS £1.2 billion a year, and significantly enhance the quality of patient care. |
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Devi Shetty’s hospital of the future
London heart attack sufferers taken to a specialist cardiac centre have a 60% chance of survival, whereas those taken to a standard A&E unit only have, at best, a 26% chance of survival: according to unpublished information from the London Ambulance Service.
Experts say that the current provision of cardiac services in north and east London have, "relatively poor patient outcomes in comparison to the rest of England", and suggest that St Bartholomew's Hospital in central London should be transformed into a huge cardiovascular surgery unit, and a hub for a comprehensive network of care, which would embrace GPs and local hospitals.
For years, Devi Shetty, world-renowned heart surgeon, philanthropist, Founder, Chairman and Executive Director of Narayana Health, one of Indian’s leading private hospital groups, has argued that, "One hundred or 200 bed hospitals are not the solution". Narayana Health has Asia's largest cardiac centre providing affordable world-class cardiac care. "Large specialist cardiac centres, treating high volumes of patients, staffed by specialists and equipped with the latest technology, save lives, reduce complications, lower costs, and are the hospitals of the future," says Shetty.
Experts say that the current provision of cardiac services in north and east London have, "relatively poor patient outcomes in comparison to the rest of England", and suggest that St Bartholomew's Hospital in central London should be transformed into a huge cardiovascular surgery unit, and a hub for a comprehensive network of care, which would embrace GPs and local hospitals.
For years, Devi Shetty, world-renowned heart surgeon, philanthropist, Founder, Chairman and Executive Director of Narayana Health, one of Indian’s leading private hospital groups, has argued that, "One hundred or 200 bed hospitals are not the solution". Narayana Health has Asia's largest cardiac centre providing affordable world-class cardiac care. "Large specialist cardiac centres, treating high volumes of patients, staffed by specialists and equipped with the latest technology, save lives, reduce complications, lower costs, and are the hospitals of the future," says Shetty.
The Bart's heart centre
The proposed new Bart's Heart Centre is similar in concept to Shetty's 1,000-bed cardiac hospital in Bengaluru, which attracts patients from more than 70 countries, and each year, performs some 7,000 surgeries; 50% on children and new-borns. It also serves as a centre of excellence for cardiac services in regional communities.
The importance of culture
Besides size, Shetty also appreciates the significance of culture in developing the hospital of the future.
In Narayana's 24 hospitals in 23 cities, Shetty has developed a culture of improving clinical outcomes while reducing costs. All Narayana's 14,000 employees are committed to providing affordable world-class integrated healthcare services for people with complex medical needs.
No matter how large the new London cardiac centre, without an outcomes-orientated culture supported by every employee, the quality of patient care is likely to be inferior to that of Narayana Health.
In Narayana's 24 hospitals in 23 cities, Shetty has developed a culture of improving clinical outcomes while reducing costs. All Narayana's 14,000 employees are committed to providing affordable world-class integrated healthcare services for people with complex medical needs.
No matter how large the new London cardiac centre, without an outcomes-orientated culture supported by every employee, the quality of patient care is likely to be inferior to that of Narayana Health.
Outcomes obsessed
Narayana's outcomes data are systematically collected, organised, widely shared and used to improve clinical guidelines and decision aids. Data sharing in Narayana creates peer completion and self-regulation, which improves clinical outcomes, without incurring the costs of heavy regulation and unwieldy bureaucracy.
Narayana's surgical outcomes compare well against the world's best. Its mortality rate within 30 days of the high-volume coronary artery bypass surgery is 1.4%, compared with an average of 1.8% for England and 1.9% for the US. Were these figures adjusted for risk, Narayana's outcomes would be even better. Narayana's hospital-acquired infection rate is 2.8% per 1,000 ICU days, which is comparable with the best hospitals in the world.
Narayana's surgical outcomes compare well against the world's best. Its mortality rate within 30 days of the high-volume coronary artery bypass surgery is 1.4%, compared with an average of 1.8% for England and 1.9% for the US. Were these figures adjusted for risk, Narayana's outcomes would be even better. Narayana's hospital-acquired infection rate is 2.8% per 1,000 ICU days, which is comparable with the best hospitals in the world.
Challenging professional assumptions
Like their UK NHS counterparts, Narayana's senior surgeons provide consultations for patients, lead operations, train surgeons and discharge patients. Unlike their UK counterparts, they're incentivised to spend more time in the operating room concentrating on what they do best - complex surgeries – while junior surgeons open and close surgical procedures and other health professionals attend patients in ICUs.
Typically, Narayana's surgeons work 60 to 70 hours a week, perform up to five operations a day and a third of their compensation is profit related. By contrast, UK's NHS consultant surgeons undertake between three to four procedures a week and their pay is based on 10 4-hour programmed activities a week and anything more is paid overtime. Unlike the NHS, Narayana has no rifts between clinicians and administrators; both are responsible for financial management. Every day, every doctor and every administrator receives a text message with the previous day's profit and loss statement.
Narayana's heart centre in Bangalore is a MECCA for western policy makers. All come away inspired but suggest that Narayana is an “Indian phenomenon”.
Typically, Narayana's surgeons work 60 to 70 hours a week, perform up to five operations a day and a third of their compensation is profit related. By contrast, UK's NHS consultant surgeons undertake between three to four procedures a week and their pay is based on 10 4-hour programmed activities a week and anything more is paid overtime. Unlike the NHS, Narayana has no rifts between clinicians and administrators; both are responsible for financial management. Every day, every doctor and every administrator receives a text message with the previous day's profit and loss statement.
Narayana's heart centre in Bangalore is a MECCA for western policy makers. All come away inspired but suggest that Narayana is an “Indian phenomenon”.
Takeaways
Perceiving Narayana Health as “Indian” fails to see the elephant in the room. In February 2014, Shetty opened a 140-bed hospital in the Cayman Islands as the first phase of a 2,000-bed Narayana Health City designed to capture share from the American healthcare market. "Our intention is not just to build a super specialty hospital; our intention is to build a hospital of the future," says Shetty.